FXUS63 KSGF 261715
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1115 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.UPDATE...

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO RAISE POPS AND INCREASE SNOWFALL OVER
THE NORTH TODAY. A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT WITH THIS ENERGY HAS BEEN SYNCED UP WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE. WE
HAVE THEREFORE SEEN A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH LOCATIONS UP THAT WAY PICKING UP A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW.

THINK THIS SAME SETUP WILL PERSIST AS THIS BAND PUSHES SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS NEVADA...ALREADY REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. DO FEEL
THAT THE BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL OUTRUN THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...SO SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY
AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS. THE TRUMAN LAKE AND LAKE OF
THE OZARKS REGION MAY PUSH AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WITH AREAS
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE ONLY SEEING A FEW FLURRIES.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL DEAL WITH SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH
ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY IS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES OFF TO OUR WEST
AND NORTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING AROUND
THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA NOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN KANSAS SHOULD HELP TO EJECT THIS SURFACE
FEATURE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO DRAW COLD AIR
FROM NORTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY BACK INTO UTAH THIS
MORNING...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL THAT COLD AIR IS HERE TO STAY FOR A
WHILE...AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR TODAY...GFS DRIVES THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI SOME TIME BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...9 AM AND
NOON TODAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL BELOW WHAT MAV GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOR
HIGHS TODAY. FOLLOWED MET/WRF GUIDANCE ON HIGHS TODAY...GENERALLY
LOOK FOR MID 20S FOR HIGH TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES. LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
PARTS NORTH WITH. WITH LOW CLOUDS AND CYCLONIC FLOW THOUGH...DID
INCLUDE SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR PART OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS WELL
TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SGF CWA.

PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WE STAY UNDER A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE LOW BEGINS TO
PULL NORTHEAST. STILL...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WE
CONTINUE A NORTHWEST FLOW AT LEAST INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE CWA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR A SLIGHT WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. 

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WITH BULK
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS FEATURE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH SLT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.AVIATION...

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL
IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
THEREFORE BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AROUND...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO CARRY MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KSGF INTO SUNDAY MORNING. KBBG AND KJLN ARE
A LITTLE TOUGHER TO CALL. THINK KBBG WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
MVFR...BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR. WILL KEEP THE MVFR
GOING FOR NOW AS TIMING THE DIFFERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS BEST
HANDLED IN THE SHORT TERM. DO THINK KJLN WILL SEE ENOUGH IN THE
WAY OF BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO GO WITH VFR LATER THIS EVENING.
DO HOWEVER THINK THERE WILL BE MVFR AT TIMES...BUT THIS IS AGAIN
MORE OF A NEAR TERM ISSUE. WINDS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$