FXUS62 KCAE 220537
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1237 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS OUR AREA BY CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE 23Z...RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM LAST NIGHT...WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE. CURRENT DEW POINTS ALSO TOO HIGH
BASED ON LAPS...WILL LOWER AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. MAINLY
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PULLS UP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR
THE MOST PART...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS
DRY ENOUGH SUCH THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE LATE
TONIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HINTING AT A POSSIBLE WEDGE SCENARIO FOR THE CAROLINAS FOR
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AT THE POINT BUT DID LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY
WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS OVERALL CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FOG AT BOTH AGS/OGB NEAR 12Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL OCCUR. MOST OF THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTING FOG. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HC
