FXUS64 KSHV 260848
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
248 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA STRETCHED FROM SE TX TO S AL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CIRRUS STREAMING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH IS
COMING OFF OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING TODAY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES SHOULD ONLY
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S AND
COOLER...AND LOWS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE CWFA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR THE ONSET OF THIS PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY TO SEE SOME SNOW...OR MAYBE A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A RESULT...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. IF
ANYTHING WINTRY DEVELOPS...IT SHOULD ALL CHANGE OVER TO A COLD RAIN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING KEEP A
LARGE ENOUGH WARM LAYER ALOFT TO KEEP IT AT RAIN...AND TEMPERATURES
BY THIS TIME SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVEL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE CWFA TO END PRECIP OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS STILL
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 50S OR COOLER...AND HIGHS REMAINING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BY LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S AND LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN
BELOW FREEZING. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 25 KFT AND
MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO
10 KTS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 51 28 50 29 50 / 0 10 0 10 10
MLU 53 28 49 29 50 / 0 10 0 10 10
DEQ 46 24 45 23 47 / 0 0 0 10 0
TXK 47 29 47 27 48 / 0 0 0 10 0
ELD 49 26 48 26 50 / 0 0 0 10 0
TYR 49 29 49 29 50 / 0 10 0 10 0
GGG 50 27 50 26 49 / 0 10 0 10 10
LFK 54 30 55 28 51 / 0 10 0 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
22/14
