FXUS61 KILN 090609
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND LIFT
NE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER
MO TO EJECT NE TO A POSITION NR SRN LAKE MI BY 12Z WED. DEEP ISENTROPIC
LIFT HAS OVERSPREAD ILN/S ENTIRE FA THRU THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVEL WITH LOW LEVEL WET BULB VALUES BELOW FREEZING
ALLOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF ILN/S
FA TO FALL AS SLEET. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA THIS MIX HAS SHIFTED
NORTH TO THE FAR NRN TIER OF ILN/S FA.  ALL PRECIP WL CHANGE TO
RAIN THRU THE EVENING WITH CONTD WAA. HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATED TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. WENT WITH A BLEND WITH A SLIGHT
GFS BIAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER ILLINOIS AND INTO MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND THE
TEMPERATURE WILL DROP DURING THE DAY. AS THE TEMPERATURE DROPS
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SNOW. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. WENT WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA DUE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WHICH WILL
BRING STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BUFKIT WAS GIVING
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FA AND THEREFORE
WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY OVER THAT LOCATION. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...  
PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. WE MAY SEE SNOW SHOWERS ON 
SATURDAY RESULTING FROM A STORM SYSTEM TRAVELING NEAR THE GULF 
COAST. MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW TRAVELING ALONG THE GULF COAST BRINGS A 
CHANCE OF SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON 
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 30...OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 
READINGS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN 
THE MID 30S SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN ALL RAIN NOW AS AREA IS WITHIN WARM SECTOR....WTH SFC ANALYS
SHOWING CD FNT STILL BACK INTO IL...TO APPROACH WESTERN AREAS BY
12Z. CURRENTLY A LULL IN THE PRECIP IN WESTERN AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL
-SHRA TO APPROACH THE AREA AGAIN IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT.
PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CIGS TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. 

SE WINDS THROUGH 10Z IN THE WEST AND 12Z IN THE EAST WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO CLOSE TO 30KTS WITH THREAT OF LLWS AS STRONG LLJ
APPROACHES WITHIN THIS TIMEFRAME. AS STRONG CAA MOVES IN...SHSN
DEVELOPS AND SW AND THEN WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE FROM 35 TO 45
KTS OR MORE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE CIGS TO COME UP
SLIGHTLY...STILL MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF WIND EVENT. KEPT MVFR CIGS
AFTER 00Z...THOUGH WINDS DIMINISHING GRADUALLY.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY 
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-070>072-
     077>079.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     OHZ064-065-073-074-080>082-088.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY 
     FOR KYZ089>099.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     KYZ100.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY 
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JDR