FXUS63 KLMK 260822
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVG THRU OUR FA THIS AFTN.
SFC TROF HAS ALREADY MOVED THRU...SHIFTING OUR WINDS TO WESTERLY AND
DROPPING TEMPS FROM THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS UPR TROF APPROACHES
THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BACK A BIT TO SW IN ADVANCE OF
SECOND SFC TROF IN THE STL VCNTY ATTM. COMBO OF MAX LIFT AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROFS APPEARS TO ROTATE SEWD INTO OUR FA BY
ABOUT NOON OVER OUR NWRN MOST FA AND LATE AFTN FOR OUR SERN
COUNTIES. A LOOK AT BUFKIT AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THICKNESS FCSTS WOULD SUGGEST A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX WITH
BNDRY LAYER TEMPS IN FAVOR OF RAIN AND THICKNESSES SUPPORTING SNOW.
QPF LOOKS TO BE ABOUT .05 OR LESS WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACRS OUR
INDIANA COUNTIES AND NRN BLUEGRASS REGION OF KY.
TEMPS DURG THE AFTN SHUD BE MORE IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...PROBABLY
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH...ABOUT 2 DEGS COLDER THAN GFS
MOS. CLOUDS WILL BE MOVG INTO SRN INDIANA BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN
REACH THE LOU AND LEX AREAS DURG THE MORNING. OUR SERN COUNTIES WILL
SEE THE MOST SUN TDA AND THE WARMEST TEMPS (UPR 40S)...WHILE OUR
NWRN MOST INDIANA COUNTIES HANG AROUND 40.
THE PRECIP WILL END LAST ACRS OUR NERN MOST COUNTIES LATE THIS EVE
WITH SOME CLEARING PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST AFTERWARD. TEMPS SHUD
SETTLE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY - WEDNESDAY)...
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL SEE THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE LOWS QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY. CONTINUING WITH THE TREND THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END QUICKER THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THOUGH A LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER COULD LINGER OVER
THE BLUEGRASS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY THIS CHANCE LOOKS LOW SO HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRIDAY DAYTIME
FORECAST. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH UPPER 30S OVER EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO MID 40S
OVER WEST CENTRAL. A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WARM UP WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 50S.
BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IT
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
THE LATEST ECMWF...THOUGH STILL SLOWER AT MOVING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE AREA THAN THE GFS...HAS SPED UP THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A SECOND DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. LOWS ON MONDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 40S THEN DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION
DURING MIDDAY THU. AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS (HIGH MVFR TO VFR ) IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROF WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME SNOW FLAKES DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. ANY SNOW
FLAKES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT SDF AND LEX. POST TROF WLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THU WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........DK/11
LONG TERM.........EES
AVIATION..........DK/11
