FXUS62 KMFL 231439
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009
.UPDATE...FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY. SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH RIDGING DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN E-NE WIND FLOW TODAY WITH
INCREASING SPEEDS AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING IN ON THE
BREEZE.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TOMORROW AS POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES INDUCING A MAJOR WINTER
STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TURN SE LOCALLY ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THU BUT ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS DAY. SO ADDED IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN AREAS TOMORROW AND ALL AREAS
CHRISTMAS DAY. WILL ASSESS THIS FURTHER AND RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
THE 12Z RUNS THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009/
UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BISCAYNE BAY AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...AND THEY LIKELY WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS MORE ESPECIALLY
OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST TODAY/TONIGHT. WINDS A CATEGORY LOWER
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THERE LATER TODAY. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009/
AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS THRU PD. WND E COAST TERMINALS NE
-ENE 7-10 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS ARND 15 KTS TIL 13Z THEN INCRG
12-14 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-23 KTS. WND INCRS DUE TO INCRG PRES GRAD
WITH HI PRES TO N AND LOW PRES MOVG FM CARIB NR TWD E CUBA. VRY LGT
RA MOVG W ACRS ATLC AFFECTING MIAMI DADE COUNTY BUT PSBL AFFECT TO
TERMINALS IN MIAMI DADE MAY BE CIG ABV 30K-40K. PSBL VCSH E COAST
AFT 00Z BUT APPEARS ATTM NO SIG ENUF TO PLC IN TAFS ATTM. AT KAPF
WND ENE ARND 5 KTS INCRG AFT 14Z 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS AFT 18Z
ARND 20 KTS. WNDS DCRS AFT 00Z AND BCM ENE < 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FLORID STRAITS AND
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN ADDITION
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH PWATS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE ONE INCH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS.
A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF TEXAS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THURSDAY
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. SO
FAR THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE APPRECIABLE DYNAMICS TO WARRANT
ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TODAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS...WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THIS TREND EXTENDING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WELL.
MARINE...
THE SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS. OVER THE REGIONAL
WATERS THE MAIN WIND INCREASE WILL BE OVER THE OFF SHORE GULF
WATERS AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR 22
KNOTS POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON IF THE WINDS INCREASE TO 22 KNOTS OR ABOVE.
OTHERWISE A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY AND FOR BISCAYNE BAY AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 67 78 71 / 20 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 70 78 73 / 20 20 40 40
MIAMI 78 69 79 71 / 20 20 40 40
NAPLES 78 60 81 66 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ630-AMZ651-
AMZ671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
