FXUS64 KMOB 262128
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
328 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)FIRST THINGS FIRST...THE
UPPER LOW SPINNING AROUND OVER IA YESTERDAY HAS NOODLED NORTH...TO
OVER MN ATTM. THE WESTERN RIDGE HAS BEEN SPLIT BY A SHORTWAVE
SPINNING OVER OR...WHILE THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIDGE HAS BEEN PUSHED
OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE...ONE OF THE CAUSES OF
THE WEATHER IN THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM HAS MADE ITS 
APPEARANCE...MOVING OVER OPEN WATER FROM MEX. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF 
THE TROPOSPHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE 
FA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE IA/IL LINE. THE AIRMASS OVER THE 
AREA IS VERY DRY...WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.1" 
TO OUR EAST...0.2-0.3" TO STATIONS TO OUR WEST. WHAT'S MOST 
IMPORTANT TO THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS THE CIRCULATION THAT HAS 
ORGANIZED OFF THE TX/MEX GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE COAST.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TAKE THE CIRCULATION
EAST-NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A VORT LOBE SWINGS SOUTH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE VORT LOBE PUSHING THE GULF SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING ANY
PRECIP FARTHER OFFSHORE AND LESSENING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AM STILL CONCERNED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SLEET OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER ANY VIRGA...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY...AM LESS
CONCERNED. ADD IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE FA
ATTM HELPING TO CUT DOWN ANY COOLING TONIGHT...AM EXPECTING TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE WARMER GFS/MAV IS
ADVERTISING...AM GOING TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN THE PRODUCTS WITH
THIS PACKAGE.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VORT LOBE JOINS THE 
THE LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...HELPING TO RE-ESTABLISH 
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)FOR THE EXTENDED...ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER 
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SWINGS EAST...MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 
WEDNESDAY AND ORGANIZING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE TX GULF COAST 
WEDNESDAY....TAKING IT EAST AND BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY 
INTO THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING SOME SHORTWAVE 
ENERGY FOLLOWING...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN THE END OF THE 
COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY 
SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS 
THE AREA DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK TROUGH 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF 
MVFR CIGS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
TODAY BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH SFC RIDGING PERSISTING.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST NEAR 18Z TOMORROW AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES 
THROUGH. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT 
OF THE EAST OVER THE MARINE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES 
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS. OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS BY LATE SUNDAY IN THE 
WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND PERSISTS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER 
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. ANOTHER GULF LOW IS FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN 
WINDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 34/JFB 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL SEE
SOME MOISTURE INFLUX AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER 
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A TEMPORARY SWITCH IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW 
TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...BUT A RE-ENFORCING PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR 
SUNDAY WILL RE-ESTABLISH NORTHERLY WINDS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS 
WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA 
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY 
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA. AREAS 
CLOSER TO THE COAST ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS 
OF RAIN AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      34  57  32  51  29 /  20  20  05  00  00 
PENSACOLA   39  57  35  53  31 /  20  20  05  00  00 
DESTIN      39  57  38  53  35 /  20  20  10  00  00 
EVERGREEN   31  55  29  51  24 /  10  10  05  00  00 
WAYNESBORO  31  55  27  51  25 /  05  10  05  00  00 
CAMDEN      30  54  29  50  24 /  05  10  05  00  00 
CRESTVIEW   32  58  30  53  23 /  20  10  05  00  00 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. 

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

34/16