FXUS63 KILX 262101
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 238 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES...AND REMAINING PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE FA AS THE REGION IS IN A RATHER DEEP TROF OF COLD
AIR ALOFT. MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT RANGE IS DECENT ENOUGH
THAT A BLEND IS JUST FINE. GOING WITH A MORE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
SUN/MON SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY GOING THE SAME WAY.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE TOO AMPLIFIED AND
INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
DESERT SW...AND FORECAST WILL BE A CONSERVATIVE BLEND...WITH FAVOR
TO THE GFS.  

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... CHILLY TEMPS AND GRAY
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LEAVING THE FA WITH SOME VERY CHILLY TEMPS BY
MORNING...IN THE UPPER 20S. COULD DROP EVEN MORE IF CLOUDS CLEAR
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR A RATHER QUIET
SATURDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS BRINGS
MODERATING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE GFS SOLUTION OF A MORE CUT
OFF LOW IN THE SW...AND SLOW TO FORM THE PRECIP PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE SOUTH AND PASS THE FRONT ON SUN/MON. WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW AS
MUCH OF THE QPF IS A BIT OVERBLOWN IN RESPONSE TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS THE LOW ITSELF...MOVING OUT MID WEEK. ECMWF IS
INCONSISTENT AND CHOPPY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS
HIGH QPF. GFS IS MAINTAINING A SLOWER MEANDERING OF THE LOW ACROSS
THE SRN TIER OF THE CONUS IN THE SPLIT FLOW WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL. FAVORING THE GFS...BUT STARTING A POTENTIAL TREND
IN THE GRIDS FOR POPS WED/THU.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1102 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

AT 17Z...LARGE AREA OF -RA...WITH A FEW AREAS OF -SN...STILL OVER
DEC AND CMI. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST THROUGH 19Z AT DEC
AND 20Z AT CMI. THIS PRECIP WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROF OVER
EASTERN IL. THIS TROF MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS...AND LARGE DECK OF ST-CU AT 1500FT. SFC RIDGE OVER EASTERN
NE TO MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS. WINDS WL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SW AT THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS...FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

DPK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$