FXUS61 KILN 262126
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TOMORROW BRINGING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS CENTERED ACROSS
THE WI...IL AND IOWA REGION. LATEST SATELLITE INDICATED CLOUDS
WRAPING AROUND THE LOW WERE MOVING NE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OH AND
EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE LOW. TRENDED TOWARD THE COLDER
NAM TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PLENTY OF LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS COULD BE THE CAUSE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD THE
COLDER NAM TEMPS MOST PERIODS WITH A NAM/GFS BLEND MAINLY DURING
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER ON HOW
ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL PHASE WITH
ENERGY FROM THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
ALONG WITH AN HPC SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z
ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THIS SOLUTION ALSO TAKES A
NRN GULF COAST LOW NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHERE IT DEEPENS
INTO A COASTAL STORM. THIS PATTERN IS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE WINTER
STORM THAT AFFECTED SE OHIO...ERN KY...WEST VIRGINIA...THE MID
ATLANTIC AND THE U.S. NORTHEAST ABOUT A WEEK AGO. IN THAT
SETUP...THE MODELS DID A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE PHASING OF THE
TWO SEPARATE BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS STAGE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ACRS OUR SE CWFA FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY...A COLD NW FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP A 
THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 

TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A DOWNWARD TREND FROM FRIDAY INTO THE 
WEEKEND. 

$$

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. CLOUD COVER WITH A BASE FROM 4-5KFT WILL EKE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LOW TRAVELS CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BROUGHT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITHOUT VSBY RESTRICTION AS EARLY AS
LATER TONIGHT ADN KEPT THEM THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NW OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR AFTER 18Z
TOMORROW...IN CORRELATION TO THE PASSAGE OF THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LOW. ADDED A RESTRICTION TO VSBY AT KCVG WITH THIS IN MIND BUT
THOUGHT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
MORE STEADY SNOW HITS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CIGS. GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN THIS LATE
AFTERNOON BUT SUSTAINED WIND SHOULD KEEP UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING
TOMORROW WILL NOT NECESSARILY CORRELATE TO ANY GUSTINESS BUT
SHOULD SEE A SUSTAINED 10-14KT WIND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN ON 
WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PARKER
NEAR TERM...PARKER
SHORT TERM...PARKER
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS