FXUS62 KMLB 062013
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...
SFC HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLC WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO THE
ATLC OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROF
OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A MODERATE E/NE BREEZE THRU THE
H100-H85 LYR. A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT WILL CAP
VERTICAL MOTION BLO 5KFT...BUT HIGH RH AIR OVER THE SW ATLC WILL
PUSH ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SATURATE THE LYR. PATCHY
PREDAWN FOG AND A FEW -SHRAS ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS IN THE
L/M50S ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...L/M60S ALONG THE SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS DUE TO THE DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY...
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN ON MON AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...GIVEN ITS CURRENT
STRENGTH AND THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT...FULL MODIFICATION
WILL NOT OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET. POPS WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION...
WHILE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL HELP OFFSET THE MODIFIED OCEAN AIR...
KEEPING MAX TEMPS WITHIN ABOUT 5F OF CLIMO (M/U70S).
MON NIGHT-TUE...
WEAK NE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST EXTENDING OVER WRN ATLC BASIN. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION ALONG WITH WARMING TREND DURING TUE AS SE FLOW
RESPONDS TO APCHG UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. KEPT LATE AFTN POP
RESERVED NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT NEAR 80.
MODIFIED PREV DISC...
WED-SAT...STRONG MID LATITUDE LOW MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A
SECONDARY LOW FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PHASED ACROSS THE MID CONTINENT AT THIS
TIME...AS 500 MB FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURS
MORNING...AND LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL LIMP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WED AFTN INTO THURS NIGHT.
FRONT APPEARS TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR FRIDAY TO BE A MOSTLY
DRY DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE PATTERN MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS
SPLIT FLOW WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STORM
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BEING TO FORM INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING THE FL
PENINSULA BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES CAN BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE DUE TO TIMING ISSUES IN FAST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 07/00Z...TEMPO MVFR CIGS BTWN FL025-030. BTWN 07/00Z-07/06Z
VFR...CIGS AOA FL050. BTWN 07/06Z-07/08Z...CIGS BCMG MVFR BTWN
FL010-020 WITH AREAS MVFR VSBYS ~5SM IN BR. AFT 07/08Z...CIGS BCMG
IFR BTWN FL006-009 ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...CONTG THRU
07/15Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT/MON...SFC/LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MID ATLC COAST WILL
COMBINE WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROF OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS TO
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/NE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC WATERS.
LINGERING N/NERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE BAHAMA BANK/SE FL
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. WILL PULL
THE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT BACK TO POINTS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET
NEARSHORE...CAPE CANAVERAL OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE S OF SEBASTIAN INLET ON MON AS A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE S PENINSULA AND DRIFTS N/NE...SEAS DIMINISHING TO 5FT OR
LESS.
TUE-THU...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS CTRL FL WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...COULD SEE AN INCREASE TO 15-20
KTS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS LOW TRACKS NE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BRING GUSTY NW-NE WINDS THURS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT
NEARSHORE/3-5FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 57 75 61 79 / 20 10 10 10
MCO 56 77 62 81 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 64 77 64 81 / 20 10 10 10
VRB 66 78 64 82 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 53 76 60 79 / 10 0 10 20
SFB 56 78 61 81 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 57 78 63 81 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 66 79 63 82 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
