FXUS63 KMKX 280932
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

A NICE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEAK SYSTEM PUSHING HIGH TEMPS UP A GOOD 10 DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
AND PUSH HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA...LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. NAM HIGHS ARE THE WARMEST FOR TODAY...BUT NOT BUYING
THE 925 MB TEMPS OF 9C IN THE SOUTH. PLUS...NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BARELY SHOW MIXING TO 925 MB TODAY...SO EVEN IF THE NAM WERE RIGHT
...DO NOT THINK THE WARMEST TEMPS WOULD BE TAPPED.

WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH NO CONCERN FOR PRECIP
AS FORCING IS MINIMAL AND MOISTURE SCARCE. IT SHOULD CLOUD UP ON
SUNDAY AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE STATE AND MOISTURE
INCREASES. STILL NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 5 AND
20 KFT...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY PRECIP. BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT LOOK TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH...SO REMOVED PRECIP
CHANCES.

MODELS AGREE ON PATTERN FOR MONDAY...KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. 

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY WITH
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GFS IS THE FASTEST...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST...WITH THE CANADIAN FALLING IN BETWEEN. MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE DIFFERENCES ARE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AS
FRONT GOES THROUGH AS WELL AS WHEN THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PRECIP
IS NOT AN ISSUE AS MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE LOW OVER SRN CANADA. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS...ENDING UP SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN.
OVERALL...EXPECT MILDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS ON TUESDAY DUE TO SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PUNCH OF COLDER AIR
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE PATCHY MVFR FOG BURNS AWAY THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 
08Z-12Z SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KMSN BY 10Z SUNDAY 
...AND 14Z AT KMKE AS MODELS INCREASE LOWER LEVEL RH ALONG COLD 
FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE. 

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL LOWER AND VEER SW AS A COLD 
FRONT/WIND SHIFT APPROACHES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT INCREASE 
SUNDAY AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG FRONT...WITH WINDS 
AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. 

WINDS AND WAVES EASE MONDAY...THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN  
TUESDAY...VEER WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN STRONG AS THEY TURN 
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE 
SUPERIOR.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07
AVIATION/MARINE...REM/09