FXUS61 KGYX 280755
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
255 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER DOWNEAST MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COASTAL STORM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE WRN MTNS OF MAINE AND
ACROSS NRN NH EARLY THIS MORNING AND SAT PIX SHOWS THIS WELL SO
WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX ADVSRY TIL 15Z...BY THEN THE LGT SNW
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE DEEP COASTAL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY A STRONG LOW/MID LVL NWLY WIND
FIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IN ITS WAKE THUS THE WIND ADVSRY
HAS BEEN ISSUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. ALSO IN THE NORMAL
DOWNSLOPING AREAS GRADUAL CLRG SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY AFTN WITH SOME
SUN EXPECTED IN THE AFTN. USED MET TEMPS FOR TDY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SOME LEFTOVER OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS
OTRW PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS EXPECTED XCPT MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE
DOWNSLOPING AREAS. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD SOUTH MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES IN THE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE
DAY...THE RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 1000 FT...THEN WILL CHANGE OVER ONCE AGAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MONDAY NIGHT.
ENE WINDS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. FOR
THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH
THE CYCLONE WHICH DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST TUESDAY. THE GFS
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST AND UP THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE THE -8 TO -12
DEGREE C RANGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MVFR CONDS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
THIS MORNING AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS INCREASE. IN THE MTNS IFR TO
MVFR CONDS MAY PERSIST THRU MID DAY BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING TO
VFR. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN THRU TNGT. NOTE
THAT RATHER STG GSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY.
LONG TERM...WESTERN TERMINALS WILL DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS DEVELOPING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS MONDAY IN RA/SN/BR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THRU THE DAY AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCA
CRIT DURING THE EVENING HRS AND THEN CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUN MORNING BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW
CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AHEAD OF AND ALSO BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER SCA.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NHZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
MARINE/HANES
