FXUS63 KMKX 012032
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
232 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPERATURES 
WITH ONLY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW PRESSURE AND FAIRLY STRONG VORT CENTER MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE 
AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS 
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUNDINGS REVEAL WHAT IS SHOWN UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. PROGS KEEP ALL PRECIP WELL NORTH AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
925 MILLIBAR TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -3C IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD 
FRONT SO TEMPS WILL DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE 30S. WHILE THE 
NORTHERN LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WELL AWAY...ATTENTION 
WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH ON THE TRACK OF THE STRONGER LOW. 
ECMWF/SREF AND HPC APPEAR TO BE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE 
VERY DRY GFS AND SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM. SOME LIGHT QPF
COULD BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND KEEP ANY MEASURABLE
SNOW/PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...PER COORD WITH KLOT. ESPECIALLY WITH A
GENERAL MODEL TREND HINTING AT SHIFTING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW FURTHER EAST.

THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA. 
FAIRLY CYCLONIC AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. COLUMN LOOKS FAIRLY 
MOIST UP TO JUST UP CLOSE TO 750 MILLIBARS. LAPSE RATES IN LOW 
LEVELS FAIRLY STEEP...WILL GO WITH SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. MODELS VERY 
SCANT ON QPF SO NOT CONFIDENT IN GETTING 0.01 IN THE BUCKETS...BUT 
EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP. WILL OPT GO BETWEEN WETTER NAM 
POPS AND DRIER GFS POPS. 

FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NOT QUITE AS MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES 
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THURSDAY. STILL A CYCLONIC LOOK TO UPPER 
PATTERN SO MODERATE COVERAGE FLURRIES/VERY LOW CHANCE MEASURING 
SEEMS OK AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER VORTEX NEAR OR NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO DROP 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN WI ON SATURDAY. FLOW ACROSS 
CWA EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY WESTERLY WITH VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF 
CYCLONIC FLOW IN SOUTHERN WI. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. ANOTHER 
SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES FOR MONDAY THOUGG QPF AND 
MOISTURE LOOKS FARILY MEAGHER. CHANCE POPS CAN HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. 

TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW
ECMWF SHOWS A MORE SIGGY MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM ARRIVING. 01/12Z 
ECMWF MUCH FASTER BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION. BASED ON THIS LATEST 
ECMWF COULD HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES FROM TUESDAY INTO 
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS 
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. 01/12Z GFS IS SLOWER...COLDER AND LESS 
DEVELOPED THAN THE ECMWF.  

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY HIGH 
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MID-LEVEL DECK BY TOMORROW MORNING 
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY LATE 
TONIGHT...AND THEN NORTHWEST BY EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS 
THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY INCREASING AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS COULD GUST TO SMALL CRAFT 
LEVELS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY IF WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL BE 
NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY TONIGHT...WILL HEAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND 
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BRISK NORTH 
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY REACH 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF 
THURSDAY. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
AVIATION/MARINE...VANCLEVE