FXUS64 KLCH 042201
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
401 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
...HISTORIC EARLY SNOWFALL AFFECTS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DAYS OF MODEL INSISTENCE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS WHICH
FORECAST THIS WELL IN ADVANCE...AN EARLY SEASON SNOW EVENT HAS
PANNED OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AWAY FROM THE COAST HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW
AT THIS HOUR...WITH MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA ALSO HAVING
CHANGED TO ALL SNOW. EXPECTING THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SHORTLY. SHOULD TAKE A COUPLE
MORE HOURS FOR THE CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES. 18Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A CLASSIC GULF
COAST SNOW PROFILE WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS UP TO 500 MB AND ONLY
THE LOWEST 1500 FEET OF THE SOUNDING ABOVE FREEZING.
BACK EDGE OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LUFKIN
TO HOUSTON TO PALACIOS LINE...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES
WEST TO NEAR THE COLLEGE STATION AREA. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER STORM
WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS...BUT PRECIPITATION MAY
END BEFORE THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIMES. WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT ADDRESS THIS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WSW STILL APPEAR
REASONABLE...AS WEBCAMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
ACCUMULATION...WITH AROUND 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER ROUGHLY ALONG THE SAME LINE AS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WINDS DECREASING
OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...AND THE EXPECTED SNOW
ACCUMULATION...THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL INLAND ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLE REACHING THE LOWER 20S ALONG
THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN LIKELY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE FREEZE
WARNING AND HARD FREEZE WARNING WERE ADJUSTED TO BEGIN SLIGHTLY
EARLIER AND END A BIT LATER BASED ON THE LATEST TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE.
OBVIOUSLY DID NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT MUCH IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT A VERY PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING STORM
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA EVERY TWO TO THREE DAYS. THUS RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST OFF AND ON FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION...WITH THE JET STREAM SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTH...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER NEXT
WEEK THAN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS DECEMBER.
&&
.MARINE...
GULF LOW CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BEING
REPORTED AT MANY BUOYS OFF THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECTING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO BE COMMON IN THE OUTER WATERS THE REST OF
TODAY...WITH ROUGH SEAS REACHING UP TO 9 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE IN ALL THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED SCA TO END A BIT SOONER BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WINDS. A ROUGH PERIOD OF MARINE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH STORM SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION EVERY FEW
DAYS...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED AND SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 28 47 36 62 52 / 80 10 10 30 50
KBPT 28 47 38 61 51 / 60 10 10 40 50
KAEX 25 46 30 59 47 / 80 10 10 30 50
KLFT 30 47 35 64 52 / 80 10 10 30 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...
BEAUREGARD...EVANGELINE...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...EVANGELINE...
RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...
JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...
IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...
ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION.
TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...
NEWTON...TYLER.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
