FXUS61 KCAR 292121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
421 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THEN CROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE
REGION LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO UPCOMING
SYSTEM FOR LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES NOTED
FROM LAST FEW RUNS WERE PERHAPS A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY JOG IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY LESS QPF.

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK
QUICKLY EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK QUICKLY EAST ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DURING MONDAY AND THEN
INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THE PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MAINE
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND RAIN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SNOW OR A BRIEF MIX ACROSS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST MAINE AT THE ONSET EARLY MONDAY MORNING OTHERWISE IT WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE FOR AN ALL LIQUID EVENT.

CONSIDERING THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...AND LACK OF ANY DEEP COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION GENERALLY LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENT SINCE OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR QPF AMOUNTS USED A BLEND OF
NAM/GFS/HPC AND DERIVED SNOW AMTS USING 10 TO 1 RATIO.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK QUICKLY EAST DURING MONDAY EXPECT
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER
TROF WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE TO THE 
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE TROF WILL
APPROACH LATER TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH/MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE EXPANDING NORTH FROM INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
TO DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MESSY DAY. THE MODELS HAVE COMPLETELY 
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE TRACK AND PRECIP TYPE GOES. THE GFS 
STILL HANGS ON TO ITS WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WARMS THE ENTIRE CWA UP 
AND HAS RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE...ON THE OTHER HAND THE 
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF 
THE STORM AND BRINGS THE STORM ON A PATH ALONG THE COAST WHICH 
SUGGESTS MORE OF A SNOW PRECIP TYPE IN THE CWA. AT THIS TIME IT 
SEEMS LIKE THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GEM BOTH 
HAVING STORM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS. WITH 
THAT BEING SAID HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE CWA WITH 
SNOW IN THE NORTH...A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE 
CWA...AND ALL RAIN DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE COAST. THE PATH OF THE 
STORM HAS A BIG BEARING ON PRECIP TYPE AND LATER MODEL RUNS NEED TO 
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. FRIDAY CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA AND 
A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN 
PART OF THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA SHOULD 
BE FREE OF PRECIP WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE COASTAL AND DOWNEAST 
AREAS...CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICKER IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES 
ARE GOING TO BE MORE SEASONAL SO THE 45 TO 50 TEMPS LOOK TO BE GONE 
FOR AWHILE. USED GMOS FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND ADJUSTED 
AS NEEDED.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TOWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT MOST
TAF LOCATIONS IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND 
MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IN RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/HILL
AVIATION...DUDA
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS