FXUS61 KAKQ 232013
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
313 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE. STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRS SLOWLY MOVES E TONITE. HIGH LVL MSTR ASSCTD WITH APPRCHG
WRM FRNT WILL OVRSPRD THE RGN...BUT WILL CALL IT A MSTLY CLR NITE
DUE TO THE OPAQUENESS OF THE CLOUDS. LOWS FROM THE UPR TEENS (OVR
EXISTING SNOWPACK) TO NR 30 SERN CSTL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLDS CONT TO INCRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG SYSTM THU. HIGHS IN THE U30S N
TO M40S S.
MODELS CONT TO AGREE IN YET ANTHR POTENT SYSTM TO EFFECT THE RGN
FRI INTO SAT AM. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING
A FEW HRS QUICKER IN MOVG PCPN INTO RGN. SREF A BLEND..SO LEANED
TOWARD ITS TIMING SOLN. AIRMASS INITIALLY DRY THU NITE AS FIRST
WAVE OF OVER RUNNING APPRCHS FROM THE SW. XPCT SOME COLUMN COOLING
ACROSS WRN CNTYS AFTR 06Z. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SPRT THE PCPN
TO START OUT AS A LGHT FZ RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT (CNTYS
W OF I95). LOWS IN THE U20S-U30S. LTL OR NO ICE XPCTD ACCUM XPCTD
B4 12Z FRI. MINS MAY OCCUR EARLY THEN STDY OUT OR SLOWLY RISE AS WAA
KICKS IN DRNG PRE-DAWN HRS.
SCND WAVE OF MSTR OVRSPRDS RGN X-MAS DAY AS WRM FRNT LIFTS N OF RGN.
XCPTN BEING XTREME NW CNTYS WHERE LL WEDGE PROGGED TO HOLD ON THRU
16Z. XPCT RAIN TO BECOME WDSPRD OVR THE FA SO INCRSD POPS TO
CATEGORICAL. SOME FZ RAIN PSBL AT THE ONSET OF PCPN (FIRST HOUR OR
TWO) NW OF A BOWLING GREEN-RICHMOND-FARMVILLE LINE. ONLY AREAS
THAT MIGHT GET A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
ALL RAIN WOULD BE OVR LOUISA/FLUVANNA/CUMBERLAND CNTYS WHERE A 4
TO 5 HR PRD OF MIXED PCPN XPCTD. TMPS TRICKY AS READINGS MAY STAY
WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 OF 40 IVOF LKU BUT RANGE TO NR 60 AT ECG.
SCNDRY LOW DVLPS THEN MOVES N ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRNT FRI NITE/ERLY
SAT MORN. THIS KEEPS PCPN CHCS GOING THRU THE NITE. ISLTD THUNDER
PSBL TO THE S&E OF WHERE TRIPLE PT TRACKS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FCST WITH
THIS PACKAGE. LOWS FROM THE U30S NW TO M50S (WRM SCTR) SE.
FRNT PUSHES E OF RGN SAT AM TAKING THE PCPN WITH IT. KEPT POPS SAT
AM BUT DROPPED POPS SAT AFTR. MILD WITH HIGHS 50-60.
QPF WISE...AVG RAINFALL BTWN 1/2 TO 1 INCH XPCTD (LCLLY HIGHER AMTS
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PSBL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND ALONG THE COAST IF
ANY CONVECTION DOES DVLP). THIS RAIN COMBINED WITH ANY SNOWMELT CUD
CERTAINLY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING PTNTL COME FRI AFTRN/NIGHT. TO EARLY
FOR A WATCH ATTM...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO REAL BIG FORECAST ISSUES FOR THIS PERIOD AS CAA SHOULD BE WELL
UNDERWAY BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME
MOISTURE TRYING TO FILTER IN ON MONDAY. NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO
SUPPORT THAT SO WL LEAVE DRY IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 FOR RIGHT NOW. JUST
LOOK TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE LATTER PERIODS AND
DRY...OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH VORT SWINGING ACRS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GIVE VFR CONDS AND LGT
MSTLY NORTH WINDS OVER NEXT 24-36 HR. THURS AFTN/EVE WILL SEE
INCRS IN HI/MID CLDS LATE AS WARM FRNT MOVES INTO AREA THURS NITE
INTO FRI...RA MOVES IN FRI AM AND WE COULD SEE IT BEGIN AS A MIX
FZRA FOR A FEW HRS RIC AND WEST...RA AT OTHER TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSB LIKELY FRI AM INTO SAT. COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SAT WITH
HIGH PRES AND VFR RETURING FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE NO NEED FOR MARINE HEADLINES
ANY SURGES TONIGHT SHOULD NOT MAKE WINDS FREQUENTLY HIGH ENOUGH...
SO NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. IN LOOKING FURTHER OUT MDLS SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH INCRSING WINDS TO SCA BY FRIDAY EVENING. SO
WL STICK WITH THAT TREND. THE COLD FRONT WL HAVE LINGERING AFFECTS
THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WL TURN TO MORE EASTERLY LATE. BEGINNING FRIDAY
SEAS WL ALSO BUILD AND LIKELY PEAK OUT BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET SOMETIME
ON SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. SOME RESIDUAL SWELL COULD BE
SEEN INTO MONDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS...ALL NOAA ALL HAZARDS/WEATHER RADIO
TRANSMITTERS OPERATING OUT OF WFO WAKEFIELD VA ARE DOWN UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...KLL
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...KLL
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
