FXUS62 KFFC 220238 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
938 PM EST MON DEC 21 2009
.UPDATE...
AREA DEWPOINTS AT 9 PM MIGHT SUGGEST CURRENT FORECAST LOWS COULD BE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO ON THE COOL SIDE. HOWEVER...AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE...EXPECT A
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CURRENT DEWPOINTS LOOK
WARM... EXPECT THEM TO FALL TOWARD MORNING WITH AREA TEMPS QUICKLY
CHASING. THEREFORE...PLAN TO LET THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
RIDE...WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S STILL EXPECTED. /39
------------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION------------------
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AREA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND AN EAST
WIND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS ZONAL
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SOUTHWEST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE TOO WARM
THIS MORNING AND MET CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM...HAVE LEANED ON THE
COOL SIDE OF MAV FOR FIRST PERIOD. BASED UPON AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER
MID ATLANTIC AREA WHERE SURFACE FLOW WILL ORIGINATE...HAVE
CONTINUED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY AND THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS TRACK CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE
SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST
TIMING THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE
WEDGE STRENGTHENS EARLY THURSDAY...AND WITH GOOD MOISTURE STREAMS
FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A 45 TO 70KT
H8 WIND BY 00Z FRI. THIS COULD CREATE A HEAVY RAIN SITUATION
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WILL CONTINUE ESF. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS ALL
BUT THE EXTREME NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CAPES...ALTHOUGH
THE COLD DOME OF AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE
TO A MINIMUM. GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TOO
WARM FOR WINTER WEATHER ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A MIX IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED THAT MODELS
ARE NOT PICKING UP THE AMOUNT OF SNOW TO OUR NORTH AND THE IMPACT
IT COULD HAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS IT
UNFOLDS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEKENDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT AVIATION-WISE. AIR IS A BIT DRIER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SOME OF THE VSBY ISSUES WE HAD THIS
MORNING. WITH CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...THOUGH...CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS IN MCN...AHN...AND
MAYBE FTY. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 2-5 KT RANGE FOR THE NIGHT BUT
SLOWLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE
PASSES. WINDS LIKELY WON'T SWITCH AROUND TO EASTERLY UNTIL AFTER
03Z WED.
SKC EXPECTED IN THE ATL AREA TONIGHT...BUT CIRRUS WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL KEEP STREAMING ACROSS SOUTH GA. THIS MAY LIMIT
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR BR AT MCN...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 30 57 33 54 39 / 0 0 5 5 20
ATLANTA 35 57 39 55 42 / 0 0 5 5 20
BLAIRSVILLE 26 53 29 50 34 / 0 0 5 5 20
CARTERSVILLE 26 55 32 54 37 / 0 0 5 10 20
COLUMBUS 31 62 37 60 45 / 0 0 5 5 20
GAINESVILLE 32 55 36 54 39 / 0 0 5 5 20
MACON 29 60 32 59 42 / 0 0 5 5 20
ROME 28 57 33 57 41 / 0 0 5 10 20
PEACHTREE CITY 26 58 28 56 38 / 0 0 5 5 20
VIDALIA 31 59 30 63 43 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
12/27
