FXUS63 KUNR 271514
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
815 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW OVER SOUTHWEST 
MB...WITH WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE US/CAN BORDER. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS HAS WEAKENING RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY THIN  
CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY 
IN THE 40S RIGHT NOW WITH LIGHT WINDS. 

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY...MAINLY WITH REGARD 
TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S 
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY 
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.   

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR RIDGE AXIS OVER THE 
ROCKIES WITH TROF MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 
TROF ACRS THE NRN PLAINS WITH CDFNT ENTERING NRN MT.

TODAY...ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY IN STORE. THERMAL PROFILES QUITE 
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO ALSO BE SIMILAR.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR NWRN ZONES BEFORE 
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS OUR CWFA DURING THE DAY. NO PCPN 
EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH CDFNT PASSAGE...BUT JET ENERGY ASSOCD WITH 
NRN STREAM WAVE COMBINED WITH MODEST FRONTOGENESIS COULD BRING SOME 
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED. BREEZY 
CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SD PLAINS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY PCPN WILL COME TO AN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS 
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND NRN STREAM WAVE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WITH TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE 
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING 
MORE DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM 
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH 
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES 
WILL WARM SOME FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING 
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-WEEK.
 
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$