FXHW60 PHFO 010130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AS 
A RIDGE CONTINUES POSITIONED NORTH OF THE STATE. THE RIDGE WILL 
WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OVER THE ISLANDS ON 
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT LAND AND SEA BREEZES. ON 
THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A 
COLD FRONT...WHICH THEN MOVES SOUTH OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY INTO 
SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE IS RESULTING IN LOCALLY BREEZY 
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 
STILL OVER 30 MPH IN THE WINDIEST AREAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON 
RADAR ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN OAHU AND MOLOKAI 
WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.  SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH DRIER AIR HAS INFILTRATED THE 
ISLAND...PARTICULARLY ACROSS KAUAI WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S. 
THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE STATE 
TONIGHT AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS. 

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT. THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AND 
DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT LAND AND SEA BREEZES. THE AIRMASS WILL BE 
VERY DRY AND STABLE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 
CLOUDS OR RAIN EXPECTED. THE WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES SOUTHWARD AND 
EASTWARD OVER THE BIG ISLAND ON THURSDAY BRINGING MODERATE SOUTHWEST 
WINDS TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS 
INCOMING FRONT HAS STILL HAS SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO 
KAUAI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH OAHU DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO 
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERLY WIND 
SHIFT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND 
WEAKEN OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND BY SATURDAY AS THE 
SUPPORT ALOFT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 

THE MODELS BACK THE FLOW QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER 
FRONT NEXT MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LESS ON THE TIMING AND 
STRENGTH OF THAT FRONT...SO HAVE WAITED ON ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS 
BEYOND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH NORTHWEST LONG PERIOD SWELL COMBINED WITH THE EFFECTS OF  
ABOVE AVERAGE SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEAST TRADE WIND SWELL IS RESULTING 
IN HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN A VARIETY OF AREAS THROUGH 
TONIGHT. ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU...WEST THROUGH NORTH THROUGH EAST 
FACING SHORES ARE AFFECTED. ON OAHU...MOLOKAI AND THE ISLAND OF 
MAUI...NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES ARE AFFECTED. AND ON THE BIG 
ISLAND...EAST FACING SHORES ARE AFFECTED. 

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS UP FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS 
DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 10 FEET OR 
GREATER. THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 600 AM HST TUESDAY FOR ALL 
WATERS...EXCEPT THE MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD AND THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND 
WATERS. 

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 600 AM HST TUESDAY FOR WEST...NORTH AND 
EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU...AND FOR NORTH AND EAST 
FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI...AND FOR EAST FACING SHORES 
OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST 
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU 
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY 
WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG 
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

BRENCHLEY