FXUS64 KTSA 220244
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK. LOW CLOUDS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE
THE AREA TOWARD MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WITH HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING IN AND WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DROP AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TWEAKED MINS UP A FEW
DEGREES NORTH OF I-40 BUT LEFT THE REST OF THE AREA AS IS. THE
REST OF THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

00Z NAM JUST NOW COMING IN...AND ITS SOLUTION FOR THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM DIVERGES QUITE A BIT FROM ITS 18Z RUN AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE MODEL SUITE. 00Z NAM SOLUTION HAS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...MORE TOWARD CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH VERY LITTLE WRAPAROUND QPF /AND
HENCE...SNOW/ DEPICTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO WATCH THE NEW SOLUTIONS OF THE REST OF THE MODEL
SUITE TO SEE IF ANY TREND TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION EXISTS...OR IF
IT CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER THAT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE.
OBVIOUSLY WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO ANY PART OF OUR FORECAST MESSAGE
BASED ON THIS RUN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22