FXUS65 KBYZ 231619
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
919 AM MST WED DEC 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING WITH 4 INCHES
REPORTED IN LIVINGSTON AND SEVERAL INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DRIER ALREADY SHOWING UP
ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL INDICATE THE BEST
SNOWFALL BEING DONE WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW IN THESE AREAS
AFTERNOON. SO MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS AS THIS IS WHAT IT SHOWS.
WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT EAST THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS
THERE. AFTERNOON ALREADY HAD WINDY CONDITIONS SO THAT LOOKED
GOOD. ALSO CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW OUT EAST TODAY. UPDATE COMING
SHORTLY. SOLUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS PATTERN
REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW STILL BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...EVEN THOUGH IS
CENTERED IN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW PROCEEDS EASTWARD BY
EARLY SUNDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY...BUT APPEARS TO CLEAR OUT BY THEN. APPEARS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE THE WEEKEND UNTIL NEXT WAVE APPEARS
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND
EXITING WEDNESDAY EVENING. INTRODUCE SLIGHT POPS AT THIS
POINT...AS INDICATIONS ARE NOT THE GREATEST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WORTH MENTION.
AS FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY CONTINUED SLOW UPWARD TREND OF TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH WARMER...PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD...THAN INHERITED NUMBERS...SO FELT SOME
DEGREE OF WARM UP WAS WARRANTED. CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
STICKING AROUND. IF DO GET SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WOULD EXPECT TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS. IF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...TEMPS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. DO HAVE A SLIGHT COOL OFF FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT DID NOT
REDUCE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. GILSTAD
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND SNOW. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE MOVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND ALL TERMINALS WILL
RECEIVE SNOW TODAY. MODERATE SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND TROUGH AND THEN LIGHTEN BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE THROUGH KBIL BETWEEN
18-19Z. AFTER THE HEAVIEST SNOW PASSES THERE WILL BE LIGHT
FLURRIES AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AND IFR UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING FOR KBIL AND KMLS. KSHR WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR MOST OF THE
DAY TOMORROW TOO. LEACH/SOLUM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019 002/013 002/020 008/034 009/031 013/024 010/029
+/S 20/B 01/U 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 017 000/016 002/024 006/031 014/033 016/028 013/029
+/S 20/N 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 21/B
HDN 019 001/013 904/019 902/030 005/031 001/026 004/028
+/S 50/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 018 901/008 905/009 903/019 901/024 002/020 004/026
+/S 70/E 22/S 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 022 001/009 904/017 902/023 002/027 005/026 007/029
+/S 83/S 22/S 11/B 11/B 11/B 21/B
BHK 022 904/006 906/011 903/016 000/023 000/019 004/021
+/S 83/S 32/S 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 020 004/012 000/021 002/028 006/031 003/027 005/031
+/S 72/S 02/S 11/B 12/S 12/S 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-39>42-56-63>66.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 31-32-38-57-58.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 33-36-37.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
