FXUS61 KCAR 272046
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
THE MARITIMES BY LATE SATURDAY. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL START TO WRAP
INTO NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN THIS EVENING GRADUALLY MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPARTING LOW ACROSS THE
MARITIMES. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 1/3/4/10...WHERE 2 TO 5
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
ALONG THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. DURING SATURDAY THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE WITH PERHAPS
AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL
ALSO TURN BLUSTERY AND COLDER DURING SATURDAY AS THE INTENSIFYING
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THINK WE WILL SEE
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
XPCT A BRISK NWRLY FLOW AND CAA TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA BEHIND 
A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM FCST TO BE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT 
THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SAT EVE...  ANY WRAP AROUND SNOW 
SHOWER ACTION ACROSS FAVORED NRN UPSLOPE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE 
LATE SAT W/ POPS DCRSG TO NIL ALL AREAS BY LATER SAT NGT/ERLY SUN.  
BRISK NWRLY FLOW IS XPCTD TO PERSIST THRU SAT NGT AND INTO SUN AS 
STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.  WEAK SFC RDG IS 
PROGGED TO BUILD BRIEFLY OVR THE REGION LATER SUN FINALLY ALLOWING 
THE BLUSTERY NW WNDS TO SUBSIDE BUT THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED 
AS UPPER POLAR VORTEX CNTRD OVR W CENTRAL LATE SUN QUICKLY SLING 
SHOTS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY EWRD FROM THE GRT LAKES TOWARD OUR 
AREA.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCRSG WAA TYPE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA 
SUN NGT W/ POPS BREAKING OUT IN INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM W-E 
LATER SUN NGT/ERLY MON.  SYSTEM IS XPCTD TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND 
A S A RESULT...SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO INGEST MUCH MOISTURE SO 
WHILE THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK POISED TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE 
AREA...ATTM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT STORM...
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINS TO EXIT THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FORS MONDAY NIGHT AND TRIM
THEM BACK FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BUT CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
WILL SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING ON IN
THE NORTHWEST CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THURSDAY WE WILL TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A
STRONGER STORM MOVING UP THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THERE ARE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN RE GUARDS TO THE PATH OF THIS STORM. THE GFS HAS
THIS STORM TRACKING WELL OFF THE COAST GIVING THE DOWNEAST
PORTIONS PRECIP...ON THE OTHER HAND THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF
HAS THIS STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE CWA PUTTING THE ENTIRE AREA
UNDER PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM. THE PATH OF THE
STORM IS IMPORTANT IN PRECIP TYPE AND FOR RIGHT NOW LEANING WITH
GFS SOLUTION. HAVE RAIN/SNOW CHANCE POPS FOR DOWNEAST FOR
THURSDAY. FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE CLOUDY IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING IN
THE DOWNEAST AN COASTAL AREAS...CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
LINGERING SNOW SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. 
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM: XPCT MAINLY VFR CONDS SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT THO COULD NOT 
RULE OUT OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS THE N IN ANY LINGERING SNOW 
SHOWERS AND SC CLDS...  XPCT CONDS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR ON ON FROM 
W-E AS A FAST MOVING LOW-PRES SYSTEM TRACKS ENE FROM THE ERN GRT 
LAKES LATE SUN RGT ACROSS CENTRAL MAIN BY LATE MON. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SATURDAY IN THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THUS A
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WILL CONT W/LOW-END GLW CONDS SAT NGT W/ CONDS XPCTD TO
DROP BLO GLW BY ERLY SUN. THEREAFTER...XPCT SCA CONDS ON SUN TO
GIVE WAY TO NIL HEADLINES LATER SUN THRU MON
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     MEZ001-003-004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...DUDA
MARINE...DUDA/KHW