FXUS64 KMEG 250946
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR NOW FILTERING INTO CWA BEHIND INTENSE MIDWEST CYCLONE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHERN SIDE OF H5 LOW WILL LIKELY CLIP
NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX SEEMS
FEASIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 25-35 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO TAKE LOW TRACK IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FASHION FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO WESTERN IOWA BY EVENING.
BELIEVE THIS ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO RELAX ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WINDS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS H5 LOW
STALLS ACROSS MISSOURI. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRIER AIR WITH
ENOUGH MIXING FROM WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES
FURTHER TONIGHT.

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND MIDWEST STORM WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND.
BELIEVE MOS IS TO HIGH ON MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THUS WITH RECENT SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS...DROPPED HIGHS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES. DRY WEATHER AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE ALL HINTING ON A LATE YEAR STORM GATHERING STRENGTH IN
THE NORTHWEST GULF. SO TIMING OF THIS COULD MEAN A LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE
MOST ROBUST MODEL SOLUTION WITH THIS FEATURE...BLANKETING THE
ENTIRE CWA WITH PRECIPITATION AND CHANGING IT FROM A WINTRY MIX TO
RAIN AS THE STORM TRACKS TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THINKING MORE
CONSERVATIVE...SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THAT COLDER AIR OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PFJ FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH LOWER POPS EXPECTED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE.

SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT TAF ISSUANCE AS STRONG VORT MAX APPROACHES.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40 AFTER 08-10Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

OVERALL...CIGS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING THEN CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD 26/00Z AS THE LOW
PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

THE ASOS AT KTUP IS NOT CURRENTLY TRANSMITTING ANY DATA...SO
ADDED AMD NOT SKED THERE.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  36  30  41  28 /  20  10  10  10 
MKL  37  27  39  25 /  20  10  10  10 
JBR  35  26  36  25 /  40  10  10  10 
TUP  39  29  42  28 /  20  10  10  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLAY-GREENE-
     LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-
     RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-
     DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
     SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$