FXUS63 KICT 270533
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERALL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEED TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.
SCHRECK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE FALLING OFF QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY CALM WINDS OVER THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT JUST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS
RIGHT ON TRACK.
SCHRECK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DRY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
SCHRECK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS WILL FOCUS AROUND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD BE
APPROACHING THE RECORD HIGH OF 71 DEGREES AT RUSSELL FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THINKING HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S AT
BEST...DUE TO A STOUT INVERSION AND ONLY MODEST MIXING. HOWEVER...IF
SURFACE WINDS VEER A BIT MORE TO THE WESTERLY DIRECTION...FRIDAY
HIGHS COULD REALLY SOAR. A COLD FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 60S GIVEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DON'T SPOIL THINGS.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THE
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT STORM SYSTEM. THE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARD A PROGRESSIVE...POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM...LIMITING THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...AM
CONTINUING TO THINK THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION-MAKER FOR THE AREA. THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 700-500MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BRIEFLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS MAY SEE A
LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ONLY ANTICIPATING
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT BEST. STILL ANTICIPATING COLDER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...WITH READINGS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL BIG COOL DOWN FOR
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AND BEYOND. MOST MODELS AT LEAST HINT AT DEEP
CANADIAN TROUGHING DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...BUT
GFS ISN'T NEARLY AS DEEP AS THE ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AM FAVORING THE LATTER SUITE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN THAN THE GFS
SURROUNDING THIS COOL DOWN. THE LATEST ECMWF BACKED OFF JUST A TAD
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT IS STILL PROGGING AROUND -8C 850MB
TEMPERATURES...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY NEXT THURSDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO POSSIBLY UPPER
TEENS DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH THE WINDS REMAIN AT NIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS THE DEEP COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
ADK
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. WINDS ARE SLOWLY SWITCHING FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS MOVING OVER.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 31 68 38 63 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 28 67 35 60 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 31 67 37 62 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 29 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 31 68 39 64 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 30 67 31 56 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 27 68 31 57 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 27 66 33 58 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 30 67 35 60 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 26 67 42 66 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 27 65 41 65 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 27 65 41 65 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 25 66 42 65 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
