FXUS61 KILN 141801
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY OFFERING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING WARMING 850 HPA TEMPS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING FAIRLY
THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ENOUGH MIXING
IS OCCURRING TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE
UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO DECREASE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. RAISED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHICH WILL
SEE A FEW MORE POCKETS OF SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO AMPLIFY WITH S/W DIGGING SE THRU THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SE THRU ILN/S FA
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT SO HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE. THERMAL PROFILES SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR ALL LIQUID
AND THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF POST FRONTAL SNOW TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NW. CAA DEVELOPS AND WINDS STAY UP WITH
CLOUDS HANGING ON THRU THE NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A LTL ABOVE
MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE OF A
FEW DEGREES IN THE MORNING BEFORE BEING OVERCOME BY CAA. A FEW LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES WL POSSIBLY SKIRT WITH THE FAR NORTH ON TUESDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AND JUST INDICATED A FEW MORE CLOUDS
ACRS THE NORTH. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE NW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN
ORIGIN BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WL DECREASE. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED LOWS AT OR BELOW MAV GUID. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WL PROVIDE SUNSHINE AND COLD TEMPS ON WED WHEN HIGHS COLDER THAN
GUID ARE PREFERRED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND STILL REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS MODELS HAVE SHOWN SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN AND
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS. USE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS IS USUALLY THE BEST
WAY TO GO UNTIL PREDICTABILITY INCREASES. IN THE BROAD PICTURE IT
APPEARS THAT SOME ENERGY MAY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH COULD
SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY KEPT POPS QUITE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS
MUCH OF INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CLEARING
TREND EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DO NOT SEE
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP UNTIL AFTER DARK.
MIXING HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST TO 20-30 KT FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE
FRONT...POSSIBLY IFR. ONLY INCLUDED THESE AT KDAY AND KILN FOR NOW
WHICH STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS...AND KEPT
THEM BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR ELSEWHERE. CIGS WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT BY 18Z. MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND NOT WORTH
A MENTION IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL
