FXUS62 KFFC 111434 AAB
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
934 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.UPDATE...
GRIDS LOOK GOOD THIS MORNING. STILL SOME VERY MINOR CONCERN ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP AT ONSET ON SATURDAY...BUT
THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO WARM AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY
SUPPORT FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP AT THIS TIME. WILL SEND A QUICK
REFRESH OF THE RED FLAG WARNING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA...A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE TODAY AS COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES E SATURDAY...
GULF MOISTURE IS POISED TO OVERRUN THE AREA WITH RAIN SPREADING N
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE TO INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIP WILL MAKE IT A CLOSE CALL FOR SOME
KIND OF WINTER MIX. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIRMASS WILL
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN AS THE PRECIP WILL COME FROM THE S...BUT
YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OUT OF THE MID CLOUD
LAYER AT THE INITIAL ONSET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES 11 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
NIGHT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN ENDS/DIMINISHES SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT WITH EXITING SYSTEM.
MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER TUESDAY. THINGS DRY OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
10 HOUR FUELS DRIED TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA ON THURSDAY. DRY DEW POINTS AND LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL GIVE
STRONG POTENTIAL FOR LOW RH'S OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR 4 PLUS HOURS
TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUING. MOISTURE RETURNS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION...
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS TAF SITES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...BEFORE SEEING ANY SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CSG/MCN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO NORTH GEORGIA
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIKEWISE...WILL INTRODUCE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCT LIGHT RAIN AT CSG/MCN GENERALLY AFTER 09Z AND ACRS NORTHERN
TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS (5 TO 10 KTS)EARLY THIS
MORNING...SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEAST MOST TAF SITES BY MID-MORNING.
49
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 44 28 41 36 49 / 0 0 80 90 80
ATLANTA 43 30 43 38 51 / 0 0 90 90 80
BLAIRSVILLE 41 22 37 36 51 / 0 5 70 90 80
CARTERSVILLE 44 24 43 39 50 / 0 0 90 80 80
COLUMBUS 49 36 43 42 58 / 0 10 100 90 60
GAINESVILLE 43 26 40 35 47 / 0 0 80 90 80
MACON 48 34 46 44 58 / 0 5 100 90 60
ROME 43 23 43 41 51 / 0 5 90 90 80
PEACHTREE CITY 44 27 42 38 50 / 0 0 100 90 80
VIDALIA 48 37 48 46 64 / 0 20 100 90 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
