FXUS62 KMFL 090537
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1237 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AFT 08Z.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FOG AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS AND ONLY EXPECT TO SEE FOG AT KTMB AND KAPF OVERNIGHT
WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND DROP TO CALM AT TIMES. HAVE INDICATED
THIS TREND IN TAFS BUT VSBYS COULD DROP BLO 3SM AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED FOR SHORT PERIODS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO DUE S AT
ALL TERMINALS BY MORNING AND PERHAPS SSW BY AFTN...AND COULD GET
GUSTY AT KPBI IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009/
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES THIS
EVENING...AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WAS BUILDING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE FROM
THE SOUTH BUT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...AND ALLOW
FOR THE SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SO HAVE MAKE THE
SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...AND BROUGHT THE WIND
SPEEDS DOWN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS. THE FOG WORDING HAS ALSO BE INCREASED FROM PATCHY TO AREAS
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
EXTEND THE PATCHY FOG WORDING INTO THE WESTERN EAST COAST METRO
AREAS.
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHICH ARE NOW SHOWING
MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO HAVE UP THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT MORE
THAN EARLIER FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL NOW BE VERY CLOSE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
THIS DATE WHICH ARE:
WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY THURSDAY
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIAMI 87 86 - 1997 84 86 - 1896
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 89 - 1919 83 86 - 1997
WEST PALM BEACH 87 87 - 1948 81 86 - 1997
MIAMI BEACH 86 89 - 1919 82 83 - 1960
CLEWISTON 85 87 - 1978
IMMOKALEE 85 87 - 1986
DEVILS GARDEN 85 86 - 1986
BELLE GLADES 86 86 - 1978
SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009/
AVIATION...
SKIES A LITTLE CLEARER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG OUT OF MOST EAST COAST TERMINALS. ONLY
EXPECT TO SEE FOG AT KTMB AND KAPF OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER AND DROP TO CALM AT TIMES. HAVE INDICATED THIS TREND IN
TAFS BUT VSBYS COULD DROP BLO 3SM AS CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR SHORT
PERIODS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO DUE S AT ALL TERMINALS BY
MORNING AND PERHAPS SSW BY AFTN...AND COULD GET GUSTY AT KPBI IF
ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS.
/STRASSBERG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE EAST AND INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT. A
COLD FRNT WL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX
BY WED MORNING AND THROUGH FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WED AFTERNOON.
MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA AND SO THE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAISE NEWD AND
BE IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ENGLAND BY THU MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN QUITE A BIT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
PARALLEL OT IT. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT
LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING..KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM HERE OR THERE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETELY LOOSE ANY UPPER LVL SUPPORT AND BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT
STALLS OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE A
GOOD 7 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, NEARING RECORD TEMPS MAINLY ON WED DUE TO THE WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE CLOUD COVER
COULD PLAY A BIG ROLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AT KEEPING MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.
WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY THURSDAY
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIAMI 85 86 - 1997 84 86 - 1896
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 89 - 1919 83 86 - 1997
WEST PALM BEACH 85 87 - 1948 81 86 - 1997
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEX SATURDAY. HOWEVER...GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON
THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE PENINSULA SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THEN AGAIN
LOOSING ENERGY AND STALLING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PLEASANT AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
TURN NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
INCHES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE GULF STREAM...MAY TURN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS DURING THIS PERIOD
(THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING) POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD TURN EAST BY FRIDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WITH MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT
RETREATS BACK NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 69 81 63 / 20 20 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 71 83 66 / 10 10 20 20
MIAMI 87 70 84 66 / 10 10 20 20
NAPLES 84 69 81 60 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
