FXUS62 KCAE 270550
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1250 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING WET WEATHER
AND COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS EXITED TO THE EAST. SO WILL ISSUE QUICK UPDATE
TO TAKE 20 PERCENT CHANCE OUT NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
NO MORE CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...NAMELY
FAIRFIELD... NEWBERRY...KERSHAW AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THERE ARE A
FEW SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEAST GSP CWA. A SHORT WAVE IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WILL BE GONE
BY 11 PM. SO WILL INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THESE
COUNTIES NOW UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING.
EARLIER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE UPSTATE WILL CROSS THE
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FOR A
FEW HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL TN MOVES EAST. LOOKS
LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS...
CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH FROST DUE TO SURFACE WINDS REMAINING UP OVERNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN OVER THE
CENTER OF THE LARGER LAKES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME AREAS SEEING THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF
THE SEASON...WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS GENERALLY 32-34. FREEZE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT TIME FRAME IF LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FREEZING CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BRING BEAUTIFUL WEATHER SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MAY SEE SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. GFS/ECMWF INDICATING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WITH MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO START THE FORECAST
PERIOD BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW
HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING WITH GOOD MIXING
EXPECTED AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELAX WITH SUNSET AND
REMAIN WESTERLY AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
BY LATE MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HC
