FXUS61 KOKX 290904
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT STORM 
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING PREDOMINATES TODAY AS SFC HIGH PASSES WELL TO THE 
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY IN WARM 
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOLLOWED MOS 
BLEND...BUT UNDERCUT A DEGREE OR TWO HERE AND THERE AS MOS WAS A TAD 
HIGH YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO HUGE MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED...WITH NAM A SLIGHT OUTLIER WITH 
HANDLING OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.

UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MONDAY 
AND TUESDAY...AND THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN 
SOUTHEAST CANADA RETROGRADES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN 
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND WILL RUN 
ABOVE NORMAL IN SW WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO APPROACH NORTHWEST ZONES LATE TONIGHT...AND SWEEP 
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED 
AS MOST IF NOT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS OUTPUT SOME QPF...ALBEIT LIGHT. 
COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS 
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES. TEMPS SHOULD COOL AS THE DAY 
PROGRESSES...BUT TEMPS STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY 
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER...BUT REMAIN MIXED. AS SUCH...LARGE 
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DISPARITY FROM NYC METRO (HEAT ISLAND) AND 
SURROUNDING SUBURBS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT ANY LAKE INDUCED PRECIP TO 
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA. 

TUESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER WITH H8 TEMPS -6C. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDS SWEEP IN AS TROUGH KICKS OUT TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST IN 
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA...PROBABLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY. FEEL WEDNESDAY REMAINS DRY AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE 
SOUTH AND EAST. THEN...SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST WEAKENS AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. WILL 
CONTINUE WITH A TRACK JUST INLAND OR RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...JUST 
ABOUT OVER THE AREA. GFS FASTER WITH LOW MOVEMENT COMPARED TO 
EC/GGEM. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL 
LIQUID TO OCCUR WITH THIS EVENT. IF THIS LOW PASSES FURTHER 
EAST...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THIS 
SYSTEM.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. 

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
W WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 KT BY 08Z...THEN W FLOW OF 
5-10 KT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WILL TURN SW LATE IN THE DAY AND 
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. 

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUN NIGHT...VFR. 
MON...SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBY LIKELY IN RAIN. 
MON NIGHT-TUE...SUB VFR CIGS POSSIBLE N AND W OF NYC. 
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR. 
WED NIGHT-THU...SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT ON EASTERN LI SOUND AND THE 
OCEAN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL BUT ANZ350 
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL THIS EVE. WITH BUOY 44017 
OUT...AM INFERRING FROM 44097 THAT SEAS ON ANZ350 SHOULD STILL BE 
REACHING 5 FT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 15Z HERE.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVE WITH WINDS 
AND SEAS INCREASING BACK TO SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS 
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS ON EASTERN LIS AND THE EASTERN 
BAYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MON 
AFTN WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS UP AND THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO 
INCLUDE THE REST OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...JUST DIDN'T HAVE 
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WOULD REACH AT THIS POINT.

WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE 
SOUTH. FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ON THE OCEAN AS A STRONG STORM 
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH LESS CLOSE TO A 1/4 
INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY 
     FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
     340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC/PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...AL
HYDROLOGY...PW