FXUS62 KMFL 011134
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
634 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ONLY KEPT KTMB WITH VIS NEAR 3 SM UNTIL 01/1215Z DUE TO FOG IN THE
AREA BUT EXPECTING IT TO DISSIPATE SOON. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE ECMWF ( WHICH WILL BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE, MORE ABOUT
THIS LATER ON) HAS THIS LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AND ACTUALLY MOVING INLAND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH GRADUALLY ADVECTING HIGHER
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE CARIB/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STILL WILL EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP (
ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE) THROUGH THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT MAYBE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST COAST AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS INDICATED ABOVE...ECMWF
WILL BE THE MODEL TO GO CLOSER WITH IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IT
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LONG RANGE. GFS HAS DONE A COMPLETELY "ABOUT FACE" AND WHAT LOOKED
CERTAIN 24 HRS AGO, NOW LOOKS DUBIOUS AT BEST. GFS NOW BRINGS THE
COLD FRONT AND STALL IT OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THAT'S A 180 DEGREE DIFFERENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF, ON
THE OTHER HAND, SLOWS DOWN THE FRONT AS IT HAS BEEN DOING IN
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT STILL MOVES IT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE A WET PERIOD OR
NOT. EITHER HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WL BE INDICATED OVER
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
NOW IS THAT THE WET PERIOD MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
QUESTION ALSO REMAINS AS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ECMWF (AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT GFS) KEEP
THE BEST DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WL STILL INDICATE
SCT STORMS ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY GETS
CLOSE, HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE THE POSSIBILITY OF EITHER STRONG OR
SEVERE HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ONLY MAKING
AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOST UPPER LEVEL DIV AND BEST
OMEGA VALUES REMAINING EVEN FURTHER NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
FINALLY MOVE SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

MARINE...BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS COULD INCREASE IN SPEED AND SHIFT TO
SE/S AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE REACH BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT AND WED,
HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY THU AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA.  

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  73  84  71 / -  10 20 60 
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  73  85  73 / -  10 20 60 
MIAMI            82  73  85  73 / -  10 20 60 
NAPLES           82  67  82  70 / 10 10 30 70 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...47/RGH 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...17/ERA