FXUS62 KMFL 071538
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1038 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
SERVING AS AN EXCELLENT SHEAR AXIS WITH EAST WINDS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND WEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED ROTATION
WITHIN SHOWERS OFF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST WHERE THERE WAS
LIKELY A TORNADIC WATERSPOUT APPROX 9 MI EAST OF RIVIERA BEACH. A
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THIS CELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THESE CELLS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO BEFORE THEY LIFT
OUT OF THE SERVICE AREA AND INTO THE MLB CWA. LOW STRATUS
CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT IS FINALLY BURNING OFF
ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY...BUT HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF COAST/NAPLES
AREA. SO ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009/ 

UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR/EAST
COAST...SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A CLOUDY START.
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOME SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREA EXTENDING INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009/ 

AVIATION...PATCHES OF IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS AS SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD, SFC WIND WILL VEER TO THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION REMAINING AT SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10KT WITH SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ONCE
AGAIN FORM LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMING
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND ADVECTING TO BOTH COASTS. HOWEVER, HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE TIMING OF ANY SUCH EVENT
WILL BE AFT 08Z TONIGHT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE LOW ATTACHED TO THE FRONT HAS BEEN
MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE FRONT. AT 07Z, THE LOW WAS
LOCATED NEAR BOCA RATON. THE LOW AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF
THE AREA BY MID MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN FORECASTED TO
MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY, NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY PASS
THROUGH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH
AGAIN FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN THEN WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 30 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THUNDER IS STILL MENTIONED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
UNTIL THURSDAY, EXPECT VERY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN (ONLY 10 PERCENT
AT BEST). THE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND IT
IS REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S 
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 
RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE:

CITIES           FORECAST HIGHS      RECORD HIGHS
MIAMI                  86             86 - 1997
FORT LAUDERDALE        85             89 - 1919
WEST PALM BEACH        85             87 - 1948
NAPLES                 84             88 - 1982
MIAMI BEACH            84             85 - 1942
CLEWISTON              86             87 - 1978
IMMOKALEE              87             87 - 1986
DEVILS GARDEN          87             86 - 1986

SO WILL STILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE ZONES 
SECTION FOR MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

MARINE...THE MESOSCALE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. THE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL BE EAST AT 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TODAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY,
SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST AGAIN FRIDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH TEMPORARILY FOR
THE LAKE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 4 FEET OR LESS WITH A
2 TO 4 FOOT SWELL THROUGH TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  67  84  73 / 20 10 10 10 
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  70  83  74 / 10 10 10 10 
MIAMI            83  69  84  74 / 10 10 10 10 
NAPLES           80  65  83  70 / 10 -  10 10 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$