FXUS62 KMFL 061720 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1220 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009

.AVIATION...NW-SE ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BAND OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS 
MOVED WEST ACROSS KPBI AND KFLL WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NE 
AT 9-12KT. LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVEN PASS KMIA IN ABOUT AN 
HOUR. SO IT NOW APPEARS LIKELY THAT NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 
EAST COAST TERMINALS. SO WILL ADJUST TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WIND 
DIRECTION TONIGHT WILL BE NW OR W LESS THAN 5 KT. OTHERWISE...VFR 
WILL PREVAIL. THERE IS CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS 
CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. GFS MOS GOES AS LOW AS 500-900 FT 
AT KAPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF THIS...KEPT VFR AT 
ALL TERMINALS AND THIS CAN BE RE-ASSESSED IN LATER FCST ISSUANCES. 
/GREGORIA   

&&

.UPDATE...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE SURFACE WINDS OVER
THE LAND AREAS TO BE NORTHERLY TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...AND WILL LOWER THE HIGHS
A LITTLE BIT OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY IN THE MORNING
UPDATE.

THE CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
ALSO BREAKING UP THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR REST OF TODAY OVER THE CWA...AND REMOVE THE POPS WORDING FOR
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR TODAY.

THE SCEC WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...AS
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE 15 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT FOWEY ROCKS AND SETTLEMENT POINT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009/ 

AVIATION...ABUNDANT STRATOCU WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS. THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET ESPECIALLY AT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. A FEW SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT THESE WILL BE REMAIN
ISOLATED AND LIGHT SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. LIGHT NW
WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL VEER TO THE NE DIRECTION AFT 16Z
WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS FORMING AFT 06Z TONIGHT BUT HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL
RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY HAS JUST ABOUT STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA STRAITS.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST AS AN EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING, THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AND WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. WIND FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COOL
FRONT WHICH WILL REACH SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY EVENING AND STALL.
THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. NO MENTION OF PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA, POPS WILL BE 20
TO 30 PERCENT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY, SOME DRYING OCCURS FOR MINIMAL POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. IT WILL COOL OFF SLIGHTLY
FRIDAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME PRECIP WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AREA.

MARINE...WINDS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY, TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A SMALL 2 TO 3 FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL
WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE PALM BEACH WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY DUE
TO THE STRONG LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  68  82  67 / 10 20 20 10 
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  70  83  68 / 10 20 10 10 
MIAMI            74  70  83  69 / 10 20 10 10 
NAPLES           71  63  79  64 / 10 10 10 10 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB