FXUS65 KFGZ 250303
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
800 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO 
THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. UNSETTLED WEATHER 
MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS MOVE 
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.

&&
DISCUSSION...A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (ABOVE 500 MB) IS BRINGING 
JUST A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...IT IS 
CLEAR. THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALREADY 
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECAST TO DROP THE TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN 
AND NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN TO DROP 
TEMPERATURES FURTHER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND 
NEUTRAL TO LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER 
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP MAXIMUM 
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIM SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND 
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO. WESTERLY FLOW AND 
SOME WARMING WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS AN UNSETTLED 
PATTERN FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO 
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT WILL TAKE THE VAST BULK OF THE ENERGY 
AND MOISTURE SOUTH OF ARIZONA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE 
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR A 
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT 
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF 
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL 
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION 
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON/MAS
AVIATION.......DB

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.