FXUS65 KABQ 110942
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES THE NEW MEXICO AREA.
SOME MORE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING AHEAD OF THE FEATURE
WHERE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS INCREASING OVER ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AT H7. CLOUDS BASES WILL SLOWLY
LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OUT WEST...AND HAVE KEPT SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON POPS...FAVORING THE CHUSKAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS
DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE.
SIMILAR AREAS WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE FIRST ONE. UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE STILL NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH ONLY A VERY SUBTLE TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT BEING ADVERTISED
BY MODELS. NONETHELESS...OROGRAPHICS WILL BE SUFFICIENT AS MID/UPPER
FLOW PICKS UP WITH 30 TO 35 KT DEVELOPING AT H7.
THE THIRD AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE OF ENERGY LOOKS TO COME IN A
BIT SLOWER THAN WAS ADVERTISED 24 HOURS AGO...THIS FEATURE BEING
AN EXTENSION OF A LONGER WAVE HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING IN THE
WESTERN STATES. IN SIMILAR FASHION...THE BEST FORCING AND LIFT
INITIALLY FAVOR THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SUNDAY WITH A
TRAILING PIECE OF ENERGY/TROUGH AXIS DRAGGING ALONG THE WEST
CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SAN JUANS LOOK TO SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RIGHT NOW...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
END ADVISORY TO LOW END WARNING AMOUNTS...WHILE THE CHUSKAS...WEST
CENTRAL...AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WOULD LIKELY ONLY SEE
ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR LESS.
LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY THE FLOW STILL LOOKS TO WEAKEN SOME
AS IT SHIFTS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. ALTHOUGH ILL-DEFINED...A CUT OFF
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE WESTERN STATES. VERY COLD AIR
MASS WOULD BE INVADING THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT THE HEART OF THE COLDER AIR MASS LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF
NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL NEW MEXICO TERMINAL SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME BKN TO OVC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SCATTERED
HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FAVORING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED INCLUDE KFMN AND KGUP WITH MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHTLY
REDUCED VSBYS. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE CHUSKA AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. KW
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...
FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL SEND WEAK PERTURBATIONS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND GENERALLY SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHWEST HIGH
TERRAIN THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW APPEARS TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DETER
MIXING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE. DRIEST AIR WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND DEEPER
MIXING WILL ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
EXCELLENT STATEWIDE TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
WITH VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...YET STILL REMAINING
WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
MAIN TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
FILTERING IN. EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE STATE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
KW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 38 20 40 27 / 5 30 30 30
DULCE........................... 33 4 36 14 / 5 30 30 40
CUBA............................ 38 10 38 16 / 0 40 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 42 17 42 26 / 10 20 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 38 14 40 17 / 5 20 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 41 15 41 22 / 5 20 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 42 17 43 19 / 5 10 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 53 24 54 26 / 5 5 5 5
CHAMA........................... 31 3 30 9 / 5 30 40 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 16 38 17 / 0 20 10 10
PECOS........................... 39 17 39 22 / 0 10 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 8 33 14 / 0 10 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 29 0 26 9 / 0 10 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 4 31 9 / 0 10 10 10
TAOS............................ 34 7 36 13 / 0 10 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 43 13 46 15 / 0 20 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 37 18 37 22 / 0 10 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 20 39 24 / 0 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 40 25 45 27 / 0 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 27 46 29 / 0 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 44 20 48 22 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 21 47 24 / 0 5 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 20 52 22 / 0 5 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 25 46 27 / 0 10 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 51 21 54 24 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 38 16 39 19 / 0 10 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 39 16 43 19 / 0 10 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 22 41 24 / 0 5 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 26 48 25 / 0 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 28 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 24 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 40 12 45 16 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 41 14 45 18 / 0 0 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 23 48 25 / 0 5 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 44 27 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 43 22 49 26 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 45 26 54 30 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 49 27 55 29 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 28 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 50 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 52 27 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 26 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 54 31 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 56 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 55 29 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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