FXUS64 KTSA 292339
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS PROGRESSING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN. CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPROVE
AT KTUL AND KRVS AND THAT TREND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME THIS EVENING. BY 05Z NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
IN OR AROUND ANY TAF SITE. THE LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS EAST
THIS EVENING. THIS IS THE MAIN ISSUE TO WATCH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
DRYING WILL OCCUR TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG. BUT
THE CLEAR SKIES AT SUNRISE SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL. ALSO
JUST ENOUGH WIND IS EXPECTED TO EXIST TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FOG. BUT IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO RESULT IN
BRIEF FOG AROUND SUNRISE IN THE WEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TAF SITES.
EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY... WITH RAINFALL
ENDING THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY... WITH NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS TEXAS. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER AS IT
PASSES. THIS WOULD BE LOCATED MAINLY FROM INTERSTATE 44 SOUTHWARD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH... IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SO
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AND LET LATER SHIFTS
CONTINUE TO ANALYZE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TRANQUIL... WITH QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS. THIS COMBINED WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL GOING INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
