FXUS61 KBGM 281634
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1134 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...TO BRING A SHORT
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...UPDATED AS OF 1130 AM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING...AS A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH HIT AND MISS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES. AT THIS TIME...WE STILL PLAN ON
LETTING THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 1 PM.
WE ENDED UP LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON'S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...AS READINGS ARE NOT
CLIMBING MUCH SO FAR. GENERALLY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WAA AND WIND SHIFT TO 260 AT 850MB BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UL HEIGHTS ALSO RISE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. SUNDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
MAX TEMPS WITH MORE SUN AND A SW WIND.
THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SE CANADA WHILE A STRONG TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
STRONG CAA WILL QUICKLY START THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. 850 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -10C WHICH IS MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WHICH IS COLDER THAN CURRENT SHOT. THIS LAKE EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY SNOW MON NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MED RANGE FCST THIS MORNING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP CONSENSUS DURING THE WEDS- FRI TIME PERIOD AT
BAY. BASE FCST WILL CONTINUE WITH 27/18Z HPC GUIDANCE PROGS. AFTER
WANING LAKE EFFECT ON TUESDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING EAST FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC
STATES...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE
REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH 27/12Z RUN...AND
BRINGS SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS SIMILAR TO 18Z RUN WITH THE LOW
SWEEPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATEST RUN IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN MOST SOLUTIONS. THE GFS DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING
FURTHER WWD FROM 12Z YESTERDAY AND POSSIBLY STARTING TO COME IN
LINE WITH ECMWF IDEAS. GLOBAL CANADIAN GEM IS SOLIDLY IN THE EC
CAMP. THE CURRENT HPC GUIDANCE THAT LEANED WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLES
APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A COMPROMISE OF BETWEEN THE EC/GFS. THE
ONLY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE I'LL MAKE THIS MORNING WILL BE TO
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA LATER
WEDS AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE THE ARRIVAL
OF WAA PRECIP SHIELD AHEAD OF THE SFC LOWS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE 00Z
THURS. OTHERWISE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF A MORE
INLAND...AND THUS WARMER/MARGINAL SNOW TRACK DRIVEN ONLY BY
DIURNAL TEMP TENDENCIES AND ELEVATION FOR POTENTIAL OF ACCUM
SNOWS. ENHANCED THE POP GRIDS TO THE E/SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY AS THERMAL...MOISTURE AND WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST.
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25-35 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE
LOSING THE GUST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND SUBSIDE TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITHIN COLD AND BLUSTERY NW FLOW
RISING INTO THE TERRAIN ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NORTHEAST PA FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWS SHARP CLEARING LINE MOVING THROUGH
MI AND OH WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH RH IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE SLOWED THE IMPROVEMENT TO LOW
END VFR CIGS BY A COUPLE HOURS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BUT
IT MAY NOT BECOME VFR AT SYR-RME UNTIL THIS EVENING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MODEST LAKE FETCH PERSISTING.
SOME UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING BUT LIKELY WITHOUT RESTRICTION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT TO TUE NGT...MVFR/VFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATE SATURDAY TO THE STATS PUT OUT ON TUESDAY.
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD BE BROKEN TODAY FOR SYRACUSE. THE SYRACUSE AREA HAS
NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY
24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WHICH
SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE
USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT.
THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 1946 276 DAYS FEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
1) 2009 276 DAYS FEB 25TH TO NOV 27TH SO FAR
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
CLIMATE...
