FXUS63 KMKX 300932
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

CURRENTLY SEEING OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE
HOLE OF CLEAR SKIES THOUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
STATE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ABOUT OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING...WITH CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
CLEARING SHOULD COMMENCE WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME
THOUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH LATE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FOR SRN WISCONSIN...KEEPING THE BEST LIFT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FURTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...WAS
TEMPTED TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. DECIDED TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THOUGH...AS MODELS HAVE
WAVERED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND COULD COME BACK SOUTH.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO NRN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PULLING UP MILDER
TEMPERATURES INTO WISCONSIN. MODEL 925 MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS
PUSHING 50 IN THE SOUTH...TO THE MID 40S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 OR MORE DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH THE
FRONT...BRINGING IT THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO WARMER HIGH TEMPS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE FASTER TIMING OVER THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS AND THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
UKMET...OPTED TO HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE STATE.

MODELS IN RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GFS BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A WEAK UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
HOLD OFF THE SYSTEM WEST...CONTINUING TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH. WENT WITH THE LATTER
SOLUTION AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SUBSIDENCE HOLE DRIFTING SE THRU ERN FORECAST AREA 
EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. BACK EDGE OF VFR 
STRATUS DECK REACHES KMSN BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z...AND THE EASTERN TAF 
SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z TUE. MID DECK ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH WILL CATCH UP WITH STRATUS DECK...BUT VFR CIGS EXPECTED 
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  WINDS WILL TAKE ON A GUSTY NATURE LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE 
TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 21Z MONDAY TO 06Z 
TUESDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP TO 25 TO 30 KT WINDS 
AROUND 1000 FT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. END 
TIME CLOSER TO TIMING OF GFS...WITH WINDS FALLING OFF FASTER THAN 
NAM...SO END TIME WILL HAVE TO MONITORED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST 
     TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07
AVIATION/MARINE...REM/09