FXUS62 KMLB 291922
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
222 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...DEEPENING GULF LOW TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THROUGH MON...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG
TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE OF INTEREST MAINLY TO AVIATION. NOT AS COOL
TONIGHT (AROUND 50) AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MON WILL MAKE IT WARMER
STILL (UPPER 70S).
MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA MON NIGHT AND SETTLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO TUES.
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA FROM THE ORLANDO AREA
NORTHWARD TUES AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GOMEX INTO
TUES NIGHT. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TUES NIGHT.
WED-SAT (MODIFIED PREV DISC)...
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE APPROACH OF AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM FROM
THE GULF WED. THE PRESENT CUTOFF LOW OVER WESTERN AZ IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DURING WED INTO THU AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE AREA LATE WED/EARLY THU AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW EJECTS
RAPIDLY NEWRD ACROSS THE SE STATES. A SQUALL LINE WL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF DURING THIS PERIOD. ADVERTISED
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS (50+ KTS @ H85 AND 40+ KTS @ H925) WITH
ADDED HELICITY COMPONENT WL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS. LTST DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK FROM SPC INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE STATE AS WELL.
THE WORKWEEK WILL END WITH COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
STRONG LOW. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS PROVIDING LOCAL VEERING OF WIND TO STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW
FRI-SATURDAY WITH A MORE EASTERLY WIND REGIME SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY A LITTLE CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME 3-5SM BR LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT AND MON WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS.
TUE-THU...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS TUES
WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND VEERING TO THE N/NE. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GOMEX MOVES NE INTO
THE SE CONUS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM AS WINDS VEER TO THE S/SE AROUND 15-20 KTS TUES
NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS (POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND 30
KTS OFFSHORE) WED/WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING WITH A BAND OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM
TUES INTO WED WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING UP TO 7-9 FT OFFSHORE
LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SPOTS JUST FELL BELOW 35 PERCENT AT 2
PM...BUT THEY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO MEET 4 HOURS DURATION.
RH WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY EARLY THIS WEEK AND THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A STRONG SQUALL LINE WED EVENING. ALSO...SOUTH WINDS COULD GET
QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 50 77 56 74 / 0 10 10 20
MCO 51 77 56 76 / 0 10 10 20
MLB 51 78 58 77 / 0 10 10 10
VRB 53 79 57 79 / 0 10 10 10
LEE 49 76 56 75 / 0 10 10 20
SFB 50 79 57 76 / 0 10 10 20
ORL 52 78 59 76 / 0 10 10 20
FPR 52 80 56 79 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
