FXUS63 KILX 261709
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1109 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1028 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING. AREA OF
MAINLY -RA...WITH SOME SCT -SN MIXED IN...NEAR THIS TROF. AT
16Z...AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-55...AND WAS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. CURRENT TRENDS SHOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE AROUND I-57 AT AROUND 18Z. WL SEND AN UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO UPDATE PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ALSO TO
REMOVE SNOW FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1102 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

AT 17Z...LARGE AREA OF -RA...WITH A FEW AREAS OF -SN...STILL OVER
DEC AND CMI. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST THROUGH 19Z AT DEC
AND 20Z AT CMI. THIS PRECIP WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROF OVER
EASTERN IL. THIS TROF MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS...AND LARGE DECK OF ST-CU AT 1500FT. SFC RIDGE OVER EASTERN
NE TO MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS. WINDS WL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SW AT THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS...FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

DPK
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FIRST
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SOME MORE ABOUT
TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA. UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES. THE CLOUD SHIELD
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ADVANCING SOUTHWARD...WITH THE EARLIER
CLEARING SOUTH OF I-70 FILLING IN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

LINGERING PRECIPITATION TODAY...AS WELL AS A STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PRECIP SHIELD EXPECTED TO BEGIN AN EASTWARD TURN SOON...AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL
CONTINUE WITH RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF I-57. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY
UP IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. 

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BEGIN A SOUTHWEST TURN...WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH 55-60 DEGREES
COMMON. 

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A MORE ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER. A SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...BUT WILL INITIALLY BE DRY. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP
BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSEST
TO THE DEPARTING FRONT. BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THIS
LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. 

MOST OF THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD. 

GEELHART

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$