FXUS61 KAKQ 231839
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE. A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION CHRISTMAS DAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GRIDS/ZFP.
HIGH PRS OVRHD RESULTS IN ANTHR DRY AND COLD DAY AHEAD WITH ONLY
SCT HIGH/MID LVL CLDS XPCTD. 12Z DATA SPRTS HIGH TMPS 40-45...COLDEST
WHERE SNOW COVER LINGERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNDER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS EVE. 

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS. MODELS ARE IN 
EXCELLANT AGREEMENT...THOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE TIMING  
OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS 
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY THU/FRI...THIS WILL LIFT A WARM 
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS'S WARM 
CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALBEIT 1000-850 MB REMAIN 
SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE AROUND 1310-1320 M ACROSS NW VA THU NIGHT INTO 
EARLY FRI MORNING. CONSIDERING THIS...AND THE FACT THAT SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE 
AFTER MIDNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A LITTLE SLEET 
AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. AREA CONCERNED IS MAINLY THE PIEDMONT. 
BASED ON GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE LEFT FREEZING RAIN IN THE 
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION 
TO RAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING. QPF AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK 
SIGNIFICANT...LESS THEN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND AS TEMPERATURES 
WARM THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS MORNING WOULD EXPECT THE IMPACT TO BE 
MINIMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN 
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CENTER OF VIGOROUS UPR LVL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MIDWEST MID-LATE 
THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE GRT LKS RGN INTO THE 
WKND. DRY SLOT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW AS ASSCD FRONTAL 
SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT/ERLY SAT. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO FALL 
BLO NRML INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR FILTERS 
INTO THE RGN WITH UPR LVL LOW. COULD SEE SOME SCT -SN/FLY'S OVER THE 
FAR N/NE MON NIGHT/TUE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS CAN BE 
ESTABLISHED OFF THE GRT LKS...BUT HELD OFF IN FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GIVE VFR CONDS AND LGT
MSTLY NORTH WINDS OVER NEXT 24-36 HR. THURS AFTN/EVE WILL SEE
INCRS IN HI/MID CLDS LATE AS WARM FRNT MOVES INTO AREA THURS NITE
INTO FRI...RA MOVES IN FRI AM AND WE COULD SEE IT BEGIN AS A MIX
FZRA FOR A FEW HRS RIC AND WEST...RA AT OTHER TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSB LIKELY FRI AM INTO SAT. COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SAT WITH
HIGH PRES AND VFR RETURING FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS...NNW TO NNE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BECMG NNE OR NE ON 
THU. A FEW BRIEF INCREASES IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MINOR 
COLD SURGES...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT 
ADVSY CRITERIA. 

FRI/SAT...WITH SFC LOW APPRCHG FROM THE SW AND HIGH PRESSURE ACRS 
ERN CANADA/NRN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS 
WITH AN ENE DIRECTION DEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING...GRADUALLY VEERING 
TO ESE ON SAT. SEAS LOOK TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 6-8 FT (POSSIBLY 
HIGHER DEPENDING ON DURATION OF THE EVENT). SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE 
NORTH ON SAT...EVENTUALLY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ALONG WITH 
OFFSHORE WNW FLOW LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS...ALL NOAA ALL HAZARDS/WEATHER RADIO 
TRANSMITTERS OPERATING OUT OF WFO WAKEFIELD VA ARE DOWN UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...