FXUS63 KICT 120922
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY:

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL EVOLUTION BUT FINE DETAILS WILL BE
CRITICAL TODAY AND TONIGHT. MIX OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
RESULTED IN FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO
FOG HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE SO FAR...BUT NOT READY TO COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME DEVELOPING OVER SNOW PACK IN CENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. APPEARS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PRIMARY AFFECT SOUTHEAST
PART OF SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHERE DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIKELY. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
THERE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. FOG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA MAY GRADUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING FOG OVER ALL BUT THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT CONFIDENCE OF
WHEN/WHERE IS LACKING GIVEN MODEL STRUGGLES WITH MOISTURE SO FAR
THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT WOULD BE FAR SOUTHEAST KS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF DRIZZLE
MORE THAN FOG.

SUN:

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH BRIEF MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

SUN NIGHT-MON:

NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL/UKMET MODEL ALL GOING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL. GIVEN THE
NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHALLOW COLD AIR...WILL SIDE WITH THE
COLDER/FASTER SOLUTION. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE AT A PREMIUM...SO
DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

TUE-FRI:

COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN
HAND SO FEW IF ANY CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

$$

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. SINCE THE
STRATUS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TEND TO THINK THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE NOW QUICKLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK
IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT...AS WELL AS IFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF
SITES...IF NOT IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
THE DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE AND VISIBILITIES AT THIS POINT.

SCHRECK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  24  47  31 /  10  10  10  10 
HUTCHINSON      36  21  45  25 /  10  10  10  10 
NEWTON          38  24  45  28 /  10  10  10  10 
ELDORADO        38  28  46  34 /  10  10  10  10 
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  28  49  37 /  10  10  10  10 
RUSSELL         34  12  36  18 /  10  10  10  10 
GREAT BEND      35  14  39  19 /  10  10  10  10 
SALINA          36  19  42  22 /  10  10  10  10 
MCPHERSON       36  21  44  23 /  10  10  10  10 
COFFEYVILLE     41  34  52  39 /  20  10  10  10 
CHANUTE         38  30  49  36 /  20  10  10  10 
IOLA            38  30  48  35 /  20  10  10  10 
PARSONS-KPPF    40  33  51  37 /  20  10  10  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$