FXUS62 KMFL 281725 AAB
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1225 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 010 TO 040 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SWING BACK TO A DRAINAGE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES AFTER 23Z WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR
TONIGHT. KAPF WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
5 KNOTS. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009/
UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ORLEANS AREA MOVING EAST AND
SINCE THIS HIGH IS CLOSER NOW, THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED AS
EXPECTED. LOOKING AT THE 12Z RAOB SOUNDING, ABOVE 1000 FEET IT GETS
INCREDIBLY DRY SO WITH MIXING, RED FLAG WARNINGS ALL AREAS LOOK
GOOD EVEN IF WE DON'T QUITE REACH THE MAX TEMPS. NO CHGS TO FCST
PACKAGES BUT DID ADJUSTS THE GRIDS WITH LAPS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS PBI...
FLL...MIA...AND APF THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW WIND WILL
GRADUALLY TURN AND BECOME MORE NELY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009/
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...00Z ANALYSIS REVEALS THIS RIDGE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF AND BY THE TIME ONE REACHES H5 LEVEL
ONLY A RIDGE AXIS IS LEFT STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID LVL RIDGE IS NOT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE
AND THE RESULT IS A MID AND UPR LEVEL FLOW THAT IS AND CONTINUES
TO TURN MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SE AND THE FL PENINSULA.
AMSU/SSMI/GPSMET BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 25% OF NORMAL OR AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH AT
THE PRESENT TIME...CONSISTENT WITH 00Z SNDG...ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE AND THOSE VALUES EXTEND EAST JUST PAST THE NW BAHAMAS.
00Z GFS/ECMWF VERY MUCH CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND ALSO THE
EARLIER GFS ENSEMBLE. WHICH MEANS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SW ATLANTIC AND STRETCH BACK INTO
THE SE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TURNING OUT OF THE EAST
BY THEN. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AFTER COOLEST MORNING ON SATURDAY...THEY WILL REMAIN VERY
PLEASANT AS A WARM UP BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THEN. DESPITE THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
TEMPS FORECAST AT THE PRESENT TIME TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL (5
DEGREES OR HIGHER) THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANGES BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE PASSING THE AREA JUST TO OUR NORTH EARLY ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SOMETIME AROUND THURSDAY WITH TIMING RATHER UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTH INTO THE SW NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN MOVE NE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL NORTH OF AREA WITH FLOW
TURNING ZONAL RATHER RAPIDLY BEHIND IT. MEANING ONLY A SLIGHT
COOLING IS FORECAST AT THE PRESENT TIME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MARINE...WINDS ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS
HAVE BEEN BLOWING IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SO WILL MENTION THAT IN FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND FORECAST AFTER THAN. IN
FACT...WIND AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 5
FEET THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AFTER
TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THE CRITICAL THING HERE IS THAT TODAY MODELS ARE
FORECASTING SURFACE WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH THAT THEY BRING DEW POINTS UP RATHER QUICKLY
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...NORMALLY
BEHIND THIS SOUTH FLORIDA COLD EPISODES...THIS INITIAL SHIFT IS
NOT ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT. NAM REFLECTS
THIS AND AS SUCH WILL BE PUTTING UP A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 35% OR LESS FOR
AROUND 4 HOURS. THE EVENT WILL BE BORDER LINE PARTICULARLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BUT GIVEN THE DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY IT IS
THE PRUDENT THING TO DO AT THIS TIME. NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BEYOND TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 57 78 63 / 0 0 - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 60 78 68 / 0 0 - -
MIAMI 73 61 79 67 / 0 0 - -
NAPLES 71 51 79 62 / 0 0 - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-
FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS
