FXUS61 KAKQ 251234
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...LIFTING
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ERN
CANADA...NOSING DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE EARLY THIS MORNING WOULD SUPPORT FRZ RAIN OR
LGT SLEET AS MAIN PTYPE OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER A
LOOK UPSTREAM TO OUR SW OVER CNTRL AND WRN NC AND AT DANVILLE VA SHOWS
THAT 1)MSTR IS LACKING...SO ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AND 2)
TEMPS AND DEW PTS ARE WARMING RAPIDLY OVER MUCH OF CNTRL NC...AND
LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING SO THIS TREND SHOULD TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD INTO OUR VA CNTYS. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVSYS AT THIS TIME...THINKING THAT ARRIVAL OF
MAIN BAND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
14/15Z...AT WHICH TIME THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
SO THAT ONLY RAIN WILL OCCUR. WILL STILL MAKE AN HWO MENTION OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP FOR FLUVANNA/LOUISA/WRN
GOOCHLAND AND CUMBERLAND THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
PRECIP ARRIVE FASTER WOULD THEN RAISE A SHORT TERM ADSY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DECENT OVERRUNNING RAINS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTN. TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIP IS ONCE AGAIN A
BIT SLOWER THAN MODELS HAD BEEN PREDICTING OVER THE PAST RUNS...SO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN TIMING A FEW MORE HRS...MUCH OF ERN VA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BAY AND THE ERN SHORE MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 2 OR 3 PM...AND HAVE
THIS DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. FOLLOWING 03Z SREF TRACK FOR THE
APPROACHING SFC LOW LATER TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF AMTS EASTERN
ZONES FOR TODAY AS BEST FORCING AND LIFT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE. OTHER ISSUE COULD BE CONVECTION ACRS FL/GULF COAST ROBBING
THE DEEPER MSTR FROM TRACKING INTO OUR AREA...NOT THAT WE WILL NOT
SEE A DECENT AMT OF RAIN...BUT AMTS MAY BE KEPT DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS
FOR TEMPS...EXPECT A SHARP GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPS LATER
TODAY...UPR 50S/NEAR 60 FAR SE...TO ARND 40 FAR NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVE...TRIPLE PT LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS FA AND WILL CONTINUE CAT POPS ALL
AREAS...WITH MODERATE RAIN RATES EXPECTED...A FEW HRS WHERE RAIN
MAY BE ALMOST HEAVY AT TIMES. STILL LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST MOVING TO
RAISE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...AND WITH POSSIBILITY OF SPLIT PRECIP
PATTERN CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR A WATCH...AS MANY AREAS LOOK TO
RECEIVE 1" AT MOST. DO NOT XPCT A RAPID MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
OVER NW ZONES AS TMPS HOVER IN THE LWR 40S...SO IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HOLD ARND AN INCH OF WATER. DO THINK THERE MAY BE SOME URBAN
ISSUES AS ANY MDT RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
GIVEN SNOWPILES THAT COVER DRAINAGE SYSTMS. THNK THAT THIS RAIN
COMBINED WITH ANY SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO RISES ON THE RIVER BASINS
NXT WEEK THOUGH. LTST DATA SUGGESTS ANY THUNDER REMAINS CONFINED
TO THE NC OB...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NE
NC...AND HAVE ADDED A SCHC TSTMS THERE DURING THE EVENING. W/ SSE
FLOW...EVENING TMPS LIKELY RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS
HIGHS...INTO LWR 60S FAR SE...40S/50S ELSEWHERE.

OVRNITE...DRY SLOT ENDS PCPN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTR LOW PASSES BY. HIGHER
POPS CONT THRU OVRNITE HRS ALONG THE COAST WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
ACROSS THE SW. TMPS FALL INTO THE 30S NW CNTYS BUT REMAIN IN THE
40S/50S AT THE COAST.

SAT...KEPT MORN POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE. DEEP DRYING OCCURS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT BUFR SNDGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF MSTR FROM
ABOUT 900MB DOWN TO THE SFC...AND WITH WEAK DEC SUN ANGLE AND
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...WILL KEEP SKIES MSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS SOUTH AND THIS MAY REACH UP INTO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN/CNTRL VA BY MID/LATER AFTN. MILD WITH TMPS IN THE
U40S NW TO L60S SE.

SUN...DRY AND MILD. LOWS U20S-M30S. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED/DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SLOWLY 
EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TO START THE LAST WEEK OF 
2009...USHERING IN DRIER/COOLER WX INTO THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES 
MORE ZONAL LTR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE UPR 
LOW...AND CONTINUED GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS W/BENIGN WX EXPECTED 
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

MAJOR FORECAST FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED IS WITH MIDLVL LOW PRESSURE 
COMING ASHORE ALONG SO CAL/BAJA MONDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE SW CONUS 
TUE/WED. THE 12Z/24DEC ECMWF APPEARS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING 
THE RESULTANT PLAINS TROUGH WEDNESDAY..ALLOWING FOR A MORE 
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW TO SURFACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY 
THURSDAY...AND THIS LOW WOULD THEN POSE A WINTER WX THREAT FOR PARTS 
OF THE REGION NEW YEARS EVE/DAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE 
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A WEAKER MIDLVL TROUGH. THE RESULTANT 
SOLUTION THEREFORE SUPPRESSES SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE 
AREA. CONSIDERING THAT THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE A BIT CLOSER 
TO THE MORE DAMPENED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF...WILL 
HEDGE THAT WAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...HV INTRODUCED SNOW/RAIN SHRAS INTO 
THE FORECAST FOR NEW YEARS EVE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. STAY 
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNG...WILL LWR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ACRS THE AREA FOR LATER THIS MORNG INTO SAT MORNG...AS A WRM FRNT
BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION. STRNG SE WNDS EXPECTED OVR SE VA AND
NE NC TAF SITES THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS THRU
W/CNTRL NC INTO SE VA. COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SAT WITH DRY WX AND
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SAT NGT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
PUT SCA IN EFFECT W/ 7AM UPDATE...AND CONTINUE IT THRU LATE TNGT
FOR THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND. ON THE CST...WILL HAVE SCA FM
9 AM THIS MORNG THRU LATE TNGT FOR THE NRN TWO CSTL ZNS THEN HAVE
GALE WRNG FOR LATE TNGT THRU SAT MORNG FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CSTL ZNS WILL HAVE SCA FM 9 AM THIS MORNG THRU
LATE SAT NGT. HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW FOR SUN
THRU TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOOKS LIKE RICHMOND WILL "OFFICIALLY" RECORD A WHITE CHRISTMAS
THIS YEAR...FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1966...AND FOR ONLY THE 9TH
TIME IN 113 YEARS OF RECORDS (SINCE THEY BEGAN IN 1897). (12Z OB
OUT OF RIC SHOWS A 2" SNOW DEPTH REPORTED).

STILL...NO SNOW WILL FALL TODAY...AND WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY MANY WILL LIKELY REMEMBER THIS YEAR AS A
RAINY CHRISTMAS RATHER THAN A "WHITE CHRISTMAS".

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHONE SERVICE AT AKQ CONTS TO BE SPORATIC AT BEST. INTERMITTENT
OUTAGES WILL CONTINUE FOR NOAA HAZARDS/WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS
OPERATING OUT OF AKQ. IN ADDITION...KAKQ 88D PRODUCTS NOT BEING
TRANSMITTED. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME FOR THESE PRODUCTS ARE UNKNOWN.
PNS'S HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...NWS AKQ