FXUS64 KEWX 081736
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EVENTUALLY SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA FROM SW TO NE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME EROSION TAKING PLACE DOWN IN THE
VALLEY AND WEST OF SJT. USING THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD AS A
GUIDE...THE LATEST RUC SHOWS AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SCOURING
OUT FIRST...WITH SOME BREAKS AT DRT BY 18-19Z. SAT MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS BY 20-21Z...AND AUSTIN BY 21-23Z. AUSTIN IS A LITTLE
TOUGHER TO FIGURE AS MODELS HANG ONTO MOISTURE A BIT LONGER ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. CONTINUE WITH IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE EROSION OCCURS. SW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AFTER THE LOW
CLOUDS CLEAR...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT IN DRT. HAVE LOWERED WINDS
A BIT ACROSS SAT/SSF/AUS AS THE LATE JUMP ON MIXING MAY NOT ALLOW
FOR THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FARTHER OUT...LOOK
FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY MAYBE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
UPDATE...
STRONG WINDS OVER WEST TX WILL ENHANCE A WARM FRONT AND A CLEARING
OF SKIES THIS AFTERNOON, MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING TRANSITION FROM
THE MORNING COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS. TREND ANALYSIS LATE THIS
MORNING SUGGESTED MORNING PACKAGE TEMP FORECASTS WERE QUITE GOOD
CONSIDERING THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR TODAY; SOME COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO REFLECT A BIT WARMER CONDITIONS ON THE PLATEAU AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO REFLECT LESS MIXING AND A SLOWER
EROSION OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES. SIMILAR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SKIES AND WINDS. AFTER LOOKING AT SOME OF
THE 12Z WIND FORECAST DATA, HAVE GONE AHEAD TO MENTION SOME FOG
FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE ALSO MADE TO
AFTERNOON PRECIP TO SUGGEST SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE AND DRIZZLE
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST.
AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z
IMPROVEMENTS WILL BEGIN WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PREVAILING.
AS ADDITIONS MIXING TAKES PLACE AND THE INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE
RAPID IMPROVEMENTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 18Z. NE/E
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SRLY AFTER 15Z AND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS
AFTER 18Z AT KDRT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SW/W AT 5 TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z.
NRLY WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AFTER 08Z AND THEN INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KTS AFTER 14Z WED. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
EL NINO AND THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM IS IN FULL THROTTLE THIS
WEEK. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE..MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF ESCARPMENT..IN SHALLOW OVERRUN
PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WITH QUITE A
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE. STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL
EVENTUALLY MIX OUT (AND DRY) LOWER LAYERS BY MIDDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE LOWERED MAV GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES OVER AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT WHERE MIXING WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE
DAY. GOOD WARMING OVER WESTERN AREAS ONCE MIXING BEGINS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT REINFORCING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AN ACTIVE POLAR JET PLUNGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS TOMORROW WILL BUILD A COOL SURFACE CP
(CONTINENTAL POLAR) RIDGE DEEP INTO SOUTH TEXAS. BY THURSDAY..GULF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THIS AIR MASS..INCREASING LOW CLOUDS
AND GIVING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. FOG FORMATION ALSO A POSSIBILITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERLIES MIX OUT THE MOIST AIR MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH NO COLD AIR
INTRUSION AND WESTERLIES ALOFT DOMINANT..NICE DAY ON TAP SATURDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS (UPPER 60S TO MID 70S) FORECAST. AS A
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE U.S. PLAINS SUNDAY..SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY WILL DRY THE AREA OUT FOR
MONDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AGAIN BY MIDWEEK (NEXT WEEK).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 41 54 31 53 / 20 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 44 57 29 54 / 20 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 46 60 31 56 / 20 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 41 49 30 51 / 20 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 49 66 43 59 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 40 51 30 52 / 30 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 45 61 39 56 / 10 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 45 58 30 56 / 20 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 44 56 32 57 / 30 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 45 61 35 56 / 10 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 45 63 35 55 / 10 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18/09
