FXUS64 KMAF 232126
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
326 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WHILE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN AREA OF
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO LOW WITH
THEIR QPF OUTPUT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED LIFT THE BEST. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DIG FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND AS THE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH RAPID COLUMN COOLING...THE RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE COLDEST 850 HPA AIR IS STILL WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AIR-MASS WILL
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. IN
ADDITION...THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL REMAIN NEAR AN AREA OF FAVORED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. THE ZONE OF
STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN
ACCORDING TO LATEST TRENDS...BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THE 850 HPA FRONT
CLOSELY...AS A STRONG NORTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
THE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW MORE QUICKLY...AND THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN.
WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS THE 700 HPA HEIGHT
GRADIENT/WINDS INCREASE RESULTING IN 45+ KT WINDS NEAR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TOO MUCH LIFT IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS...BUT SUSPECT THIS WILL CHANGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH A LESS FAVORED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY TOMORROW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST...AS THE TROWAL SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S AND LOW 40S EAST OF THE PECOS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND LIGHT WINDS THE LOWS WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. EXPECT MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
LEA COUNTY...AND LOW 20S FOR MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
IN THE EXTENDED....ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST
OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES
WITH REGARDS TO THIS FEATURE...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. WE
HAVE STAYED BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 31 42 24 45 / 60 10 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 32 44 21 46 / 40 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 37 58 29 53 / 40 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 34 48 30 49 / 30 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 26 42 25 44 / 30 10 0 0
HOBBS NM 28 41 20 44 / 60 20 0 0
MARFA TX 26 50 15 52 / 20 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 32 41 21 45 / 50 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 32 42 22 45 / 50 10 0 0
WINK TX 33 45 23 49 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...SCURRY.
&&
$$
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