FXUS63 KGLD 221145
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 AM MST TUE DEC 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
249 AM MST TUE DEC 22 2009

500 MB LOW IS MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. 300 MB JET
WINDS SUPPORT CONTINUED DIGGING OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH EJECTING THE MID LEVEL FEATURE OVER WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL THEN OCCUR OVER EASTERN KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

FOR TODAY...SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WILL DROP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF 
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH THIS AIR MASS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED KMCK. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM
850MB TO 700 MB AFTER 18Z. PROFILERS ARE ALREADY INDICATING A
VEERING WIND PROFILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. SO...A WARM LAYER
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SURFACE WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TODAY.

AS LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. WILL MENTION 
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER 
TONIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
KMCK TO KHLC. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW IN COLORADO...AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
09Z.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW 
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL...WEDNESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST. TOTAL SNOW FORECASTS THROUGH FRIDAY RANGE
FROM SIX INCHES SOUTH IN THE AREA TO 10 INCHES OVER RED WILLOW
COUNTY NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH AM CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST...I NOTE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT OVERWHELMING...AND ANY
TROWAL WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO INFLUENCE SNOW HERE. QG FORCING
COULD ALSO BE BETTER. HOWEVER...CIPS FORECAST ANALOGS SHOW HIGH 
CORRELATIONS WITH A NUMBER OF PAST EVENTS...AND THE ANALOGS
SUPPORT CURRENT SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS.

AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS THURSDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE 
SIGNIFICANTLY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL PRODUCE 
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE 
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE 
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT...DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE 
ANY BLIZZARD WATCH. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE 
CURRENT WARNING UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING DURING THE EVENT 
THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN PLACE OVER 
THE ENTIRE AREA. 

MENTZER
&&

.AVIATION...
445 AM MST TUE DEC 22 2009

FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...A COOL AND MOIST NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL 
MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS DECK AND LIFR CEILINGS AT KMCK THROUGH MUCH OF 
THE MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BRIEFLY TO MVFR AFTER 18Z. AT 
KGLD...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL MUCH 
OF TODAY...BUT BY 22Z AN IFR STRATUS DECK WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AT BOTH TAF SITES...WINTER 
PRECIPITATION WITH NEXT STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION AFTER 
03Z WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING 
     TO 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING 
     TO 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY 
     FOR COZ090>092.

&&

$$