FXUS61 KMHX 260720
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
210 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...BACK EDGE OF PRECIP MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST
AND WILL BE OFF THE COAST BEFORE 12Z SO WILL CARRY NO MORNING POPS
ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE
WEST SO HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN MILD. LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE BUT TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN AREA OF
MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS PASSING BY THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL
KEEP SKY COVER WORDED AS PARTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...EASTERN EXTENSION OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE GULF STATES WILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD WITH MID 30S DEEP INLAND TO
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S COAST AND MID/UPPER 40S FOR THE OUTER BANKS.  
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AS WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS.
STILL LOOKING FOR A WEAK SFC TROF WITH LIMITED MSTR TO MOVE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID LVL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE
VORTEX MOVING INTO THE NE STATES. MORE SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL KICK
IN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S OR NR 50 IF
WE ARE LUCKY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND/30S
IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY WX PERSISTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RA ON WED AS WEAK
COASTAL TROFFING DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST...BEST CHANCES NEAR THE
S COAST. STILL LOOKING AT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO
THU AND THU NIGHT WITH NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 40 FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES MODERATE..ESP WITH LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS MUCH WITH
HIGH TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE IS SLIDING NE AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF LOW 
PRES. MDLS SHOWING DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE IN WAKE OF LOW 
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. TOUGH CALL BUT THINK MOST SITES WILL SEE 
GOOD DEAL OF IFR OR WORSE CIGS THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. 
LOWER LVLS WILL DRY FROM MID MORNING ON WITH VFR DEVELOPING ALL 
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE VFR WILL CONT THOUGH MID WEEK AS ATMS REMAINS 
RATHER DRY WITH HIGH PRES DOMINANT FEATURE. 

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG WINDS CONT FROM OBX E AHEAD OF WEAK LOW. THESE STRONG WINDS 
WILL BE SHIFTING NE OF REGION NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING 
MORE WRLY AND DECREASING TO 15 KTS OR LESS. ONCE GALES END CNTRL 
WTRS WILL HAVE PROLONGED PD OF SCA SEAS. SEAS CURRENTLY HUGE OFF 
CST WITH 12 TO 18 FT N OF LOOKOUT. WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THESE TO 
SUBSIDE. WILL ALSO HAVE AN ENE SWELL BUILDING FROM DEEP LOW OVER N 
ATLC. ABOUT THE TIME THESE SWELLS BEGIN TO COME DOWN SUN NIGHT WILL 
SEE A ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA WITH GUSTY WNW DEVELOPING INTO MON. FOR 
NOW HAVE SCA FOR SRN WTRS INTO SUN AND CONT IT INTO MON FOR CNTRL 
AND NRN WTRS AND THAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OUT FURTHER.  FOR 
SOUNDS WILL LET SCA END NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS LOOK TO HOLD AOB 15 
KTS TODAY INTO SUN AS WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH 
BUILDING IN FROM THE WNW EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG CAA AND DECENT 
GRDNT WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR SCA LVLS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. 

GIVEN BIG SEAS REPORTED ALONG THE CST HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF 
ADVRY INTO EARLY THIS AFTN FOR THE OBX AS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO 
DROP BELOW 8 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     AMZ130-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR              
     AMZ152-154.      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RF
MARINE...RF