FXUS62 KTAE 051816
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
120 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
REGION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. BY DAYBREAK
THE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING JUST A
LIGHT WIND FROM THE NORTH. THUS...WE WON'T HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS BUT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR TEMPS SHOULD
EASILY DROP TO BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE FALL SEASON. WE ARE UPGRADING OUR FREEZE WATCH TO A
FREEZE WARNING AND IT WILL INCLUDE ALL ZONES. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SETTING UP RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS RISING
TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER GEORGIA COUNTIES TO MID 40S ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT-FRI)...THE ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL KEEP
THE RAIN CHANCES UP THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL PULSES OF ENERGY PROGRESS NORTHEAST OVER THE SRN
REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR TIMING
ISSUES...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE TWO DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
AS DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW STREAMS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS MID-WEEK PERIOD. CONDITIONS
WILL TEMPORARILY DRY IMPROVE OR DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN
GULF LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES LEADING TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN COME FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING
WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THE ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD HOLD AT CAUTIONARY LEVELS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY TO SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY 21Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WX...ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY TO
CREATE MARGINAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS RIGHT AT 4 HOURS OF SUB 35 PERCENT RH OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE SO WILL HOIST FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...DURATIONS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 HOURS AT THE MAX...SO
NO HEADLINES PLANNED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH
NO FIRE WX CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT CARYVILLE AND BLOUNTSTOWN FL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 29 57 42 70 51/ 0 0 10 20 20
PANAMA CITY 33 57 46 68 55/ 0 0 10 20 20
DOTHAN 28 53 40 64 50/ 0 0 10 30 20
ALBANY 28 55 38 67 48/ 0 0 10 20 20
VALDOSTA 30 58 42 70 51/ 0 0 10 20 20
CROSS CITY 30 62 46 71 53/ 0 0 10 20 20
APALACHICOLA 33 57 46 68 56/ 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.
GA...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.
FL...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TODAY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...BARRY
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
LONG TERM...GIBBS
