FXUS61 KRLX 101921
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
150 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
COLD BUT DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED
SOME CHGS MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. A BAND OF MAINLY -SN IS
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ATTM. WENT DETERMINISTIC WITH
POPS WITH THIS BAND AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWLANDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS...WITH NORTHERN MTNS SEEING -SN THROUGH THE AFTN.
OTHERWISE...SCT FLURRIES THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH THERMAL TROF ALONG
OH RVR 00Z...COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF CONVECTIVE/CELLULAR
NATURE...WITH SHSN MORE IN THE OFFERING DURING THE MAX HEATING HRS
AMID A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLDS. ONLY EXPECTING A DUSTING WITH THE
-SN BAND...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WHERE
DURATION WILL PLAY A FACTOR. SHOULD SHSN MATERIALIZE DURING THE
EARLY AFTN...A LOCALIZED INCH COULD RESULT ACROSS THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE CONT TO SHOW TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS THIS AFTN...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS SHOWING UP.
WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID 20S...DECIDED TO KNOCK
DOWN AFTN HIGHS A TICK OR TWO...AS CAA WILL CONT THROUGH THE AFTN.
NO OTHER CHGS MADE TO FCST ATTM.
PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSION BELOW...
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEAR TERM AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST TO BUILD IN. STILL EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH REMAINS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FINALLY ABLE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVERNIGHT AS WINDS OF AT LEAST 30-40+ KTS REMAIN AT 850MB.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY...A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WV...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH OHIO/NORTHERN WV...AFFECT THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
MODELS INDICATING 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -13 TO -17C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...CREATING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF SE OHIO AND THE WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
GUSTY WINDS...WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS AND SE OHIO TODAY...WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW
ZERO...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THINKING COVERAGE OF WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES BELOW -10 WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT OVER RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT...BRINGING A WELCOME
BREAK IN THE WEATHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EXODUS
VIA CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SW WEAKENS FRI WEAKENS OVER THE AREA...WITH GUSTS STILL CLOSE TO
40KT ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES EARLY ON AND THEN DIMINISHING.
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ARRIVES SAT NT WITH WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV...THE LATTER AIDED EARLY
ON VIA RRQ OF H3 JET. WARMING AT H85 ALONG WITH FREEZING SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN WV MTNS SPELLS FREEZING RAIN WHEN
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SAT NT AND GOING INTO SUN. SYSTEM IS
EXODUS SUN NT/MON BUT IT REMAINS WARM ALOFT IN ITS WAKE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FOR HIGHS FRI. THIS KEEPS MORNING
TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH SO THAT...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EARLY
ON...WARRANT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MID MORNING. LOWERED
LOWS A BIT SW PORTION OF AREA CLOSER TO MAV BASED ON HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THAT DIRECTION. RAISED TEMPERATURES SAT ON TOWARD BUT NOT
ALL THE WAY TO THE LATEST MAV/MEX GUIDANCE. LOWS FREEZING OR LOWER
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SAT NT FORWARD.
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS AREA SAT NT AND MAY STILL BE A
CONCERN SUN NT WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE STILL
AROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST WAS GENERALLY BASED ON HPC THINKING. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDING IN.
AS FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATE A WARM LATER WILL SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION....SO PRECIP TYPE SHOULD DEPEND ON SURFACE TEMPS.
RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS PERRY COUNTY OH AT 12 UTC TUESDAY.
PRECIP SHOULD THEN TURN TO ALL RAIN AS THE SFC TEMPS WARM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
GENERALLY WENT BELOW HPC NUMBERS FOR HIGHS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS
GUIDANCE WAS ON THE HIGH END OF THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...OR EVEN ABOVE
IT. OTHERWISE...MADE TWEAKS TO GUIDANCE TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN WV AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WV. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. HIGHER GUSTS
OF UP TO 40 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE
TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MDP/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...30
