FXUS62 KJAX 261920
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009
...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TONIGHT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BY SUNRISE. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH
WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY FROST FORMATION.
FRIDAY...HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY
WANES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT EVEN UNDER SUNNY SKIES MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 60-65 DEG RANGE. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
FRI NIGHT...HIGH BUILDS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND GOOD RAD
COOLING CONDS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD TEMPS NEAR FREEZING WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID
30S INLAND AND CLOSER TO 40 AT THE COAST. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW LESS
THAN 5 MPH SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST AND A FROST
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE POSTED IN LATER PACKAGES.
SATURDAY...HIGH SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT/BKN
CIRRUS STREAMING ACRS THE REGION AND HAVE GONE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY CONDS FOR NOW AND THIS WILL HOLD REBOUNDING MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID 60S.
SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH FLOW BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MORE PATCHY FROST FORMATION.
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION AND A RETURN TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAX TEMPS WILL SURGE BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. MAX TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 70S ACRS THE REGION.
TUESDAY...FRONT IS STALLED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROBABLY ACRS
NERN FL AND EXPECT NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVERRUN BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECT ISENTROPIC RAIN EVENT WITH ISOLD
EMBEDDED TSTMS POSSIBLE. WIDE RANGE OF MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FROM 60S
NORTH OF FRONT TO 70S TO THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS ENSEMBLE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GOMEX. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH SOME STRONG/SEVERE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AROUND 40% FOR NOW BUT
WILL BE RAMPED UP AS THE EVENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY...LOW ROLLS UP THE EAST COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SKIES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
HAVE PAINTED IN SILENT 10% POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL DECREASE WILL DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEXT WEEK WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL CONTINUE WITH WATCH OVER NE FL FOR FRIDAY AS
LOW RH DURATIONS AND WINDS STILL LOOK MARGINAL. HAVE ALSO ISSUED
WATCH FOR SATURDAY DUE TO MARGINAL DURATIONS OF LOW RH'S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 34 62 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 42 60 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 38 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 43 63 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 36 62 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 38 63 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-
HAMILTON-MARION-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
HESS/ZIBURA/PRESNALL
